The Caribbean is on high alert for what is expected to evolve into a slow-moving hurricane, Tropical Storm Melissa, that will unleash feet of rain and destructive winds on a region that has largely avoided any tropical activity this Atlantic hurricane season.
AccuWeather forecasters are warning that the western Caribbean could face extreme impacts from the system, as the slow crawl of the storm could lead to a prolonged period of torrential rainfall and life-threatening flooding and mudslides across Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba.
The National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Melissa late Tuesday morning, and a hurricane watch is in effect for part of Haiti, while a tropical storm watch is in effect for Jamaica. As of Wednesday morning, Melissa was moving west-northwest at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds up to 50 mph.
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Feet of Rain and Catastrophic Flooding Expected
The most significant threat from Melissa comes from its slow movement and the mountainous terrain of the islands it will affect. The combination of a near-stall over the region and high elevations will wring out massive amounts of moisture.
AccuWeather meteorologists have issued an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches of rain. Currently, an extensive area is forecast to receive between 4 and 8 inches of rain, with 12 to 18 inches anticipated in parts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica. This slow movement and terrain effect could lead to life-threatening to catastrophic flooding and mudslides, posing a severe threat to lives and property. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the western Caribbean due to Melissa is rated as a four.
“The longer Melissa tracks to the west, the greater the chance of an impact on the U.S.,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. “More of a westward track would tend to spare Hispaniola from the heaviest rain and flooding.”
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Strengthening to Hurricane Status
The storm is currently being hampered by disruptive breezes, or wind shear, which is inhibiting rapid strengthening. However, water temperatures in the path of Melissa are in the upper 80s F, which is well above the minimum required for tropical development. If the storm manages to avoid land for a time, it is fully expected to strengthen into a hurricane.
“Steering breezes will sooner or later grab onto the storm in the Caribbean and pull it northward,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert. “Areas from Hispaniola to Cuba and Jamaica are the initial population centers that would be first affected by the storm’s heavy rain, strong winds and building seas.”
Wind gusts from Melissa are expected to reach at least the intensity of a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in the Caribbean, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust of 100 mph. Prolonged periods of strong winds could cause damage to trees, poorly constructed buildings, and electrical power infrastructure.
Even for areas to the east, such as Puerto Rico, a plume of tropical moisture can still bring heavy rain and the risk of flash flooding and mudslides, where the RealImpact™ is rated as a one.
Potential U.S. and East Coast Concerns
While the main threat is to the Caribbean, AccuWeather experts are not entirely ruling out future impacts on the U.S.
“The chances of a direct U.S. hit from Melissa are low right now, but it is still an option, should the tropical system make it into the western Caribbean,” DaSilva added.
The primary U.S. concern would be in the Florida Peninsula, especially the lower portion and the Keys. For the U.S. East Coast, even if the center remains at sea, there is a risk of impacts late in the month from an interaction with a non-tropical storm and front, which could enhance rain, wind, and seas along the Eastern Seaboard.
Cruise, fishing, and beach resort interests throughout the Caribbean and potentially the Bahamas and South Florida are advised to take note, as conditions at sea and along the coast may be stormy and dangerous for days.
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