With just over a year until the crucial Michigan gubernatorial election, a new survey from Plymouth Union Public Research (PUP Research) indicates a slight generic preference for the Republican Party statewide, but with significant variation depending on the GOP’s nominee.
The poll, conducted October 8-9, 2025, suggests U.S. Congressman John James is the party’s strongest contender, outperforming both a generic Democrat and potential Democratic candidate Mike Duggan.
In a three-way generic ballot among likely general election voters, the Republican candidate holds a narrow 4% lead over the Democrat (39% to 35%), with 7% opting for a third-party and 18% unsure.
PUP Research notes that this advantage is stronger among voters with a history of high participation, suggesting Republicans are “well situated in the event of a typical midterm turnout.”
| Party Option | Support |
| The Republican Option | 39% |
| The Democrat Option | 35% |
| A Third Party | 7% |
| Unsure | 18% |
James Strong in Head-to-Head Matchups
The poll tested various general election scenarios, revealing a clear difference in Republican performance based on the nominee. Congressman John James proved to be the more formidable candidate:
- James vs. Democrat vs. Duggan: James leads with 35% support, compared to 31% for a generic Democrat and 12% for Mike Duggan.
- Cox vs. Democrat vs. Duggan: Former Attorney General Mike Cox significantly underperforms James, trailing the generic Democrat (31% to 28%), with Duggan receiving 15%.
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Republican Primary: James Dominates Cox
James’s lead extends into the Republican primary, where he is overwhelmingly favored among likely GOP primary voters. He garners 41% support compared to just 7% for Cox. Other potential candidates tested, including Anthony Hudson, Tom Leonard, and Aric Nesbitt, all received less than 5% support.
James’s advantage is particularly pronounced among key segments of the Republican primary electorate:
- Very Conservative Primary Voters: 49% James to 6% Cox
- Primary Voters with High Participation History: 48% James to 4% Cox
- Primary Voters who Voted for Trump in 2024: 44% James to 6% Cox
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