New data released by Morning Consult reveals that Microsoft Copilot is facing a critical turning point in the competitive AI landscape. While the brand enjoys a massive awareness advantage due to its integration with Windows and Microsoft 365, it is struggling to convert that recognition into daily habit, trailing significantly behind leaders like ChatGPT and Gemini in active user retention.
According to the May 2026 briefing, Copilot’s awareness stands at 57%, marking a 4-percentage-point increase since January. This growth comes at a time when ChatGPT’s awareness has plateaued. However, the report highlights a “structural” conversion gap. Only 21% of AI users are considered active monthly users of Copilot.
While ChatGPT and Gemini convert roughly 57% of those who know the brand into active users, Copilot converts only 36%.
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“Aware users are not finding the moment when reaching for Copilot becomes the natural choice,” the report states, suggesting that the brand’s presence in the Microsoft 365 ecosystem provides visibility but hasn’t yet created a “relevance” for the average consumer.
The research uses a framework called Category Advantage to measure “Mental Market Share”—how often a brand comes to mind for specific tasks. Copilot currently holds a 9% mental market share, placing it fourth in the category. The data shows that when consumers do recall Copilot, they associate it with fewer tasks than they do for competitors.
A particularly sharp decline was noted among “premium” and highly educated users. Active use among post-graduates plummeted from 37% to 22%, a 15-percentage-point drop.
During this same period, the AI tool Claude saw an 8-percentage-point increase in that same demographic. This indicates that professional users may be looking past pre-installed defaults in favor of specialized tools.
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The report also found that Copilot is losing its grip on the “productivity” territory it previously held. Associations with daily planning and job searching have weakened, while competitors like Claude and Gemini are moving into those lanes.
Despite these challenges, Copilot showed emerging strength in specific areas, including health information, quick answers, and research. It also maintains a loyal core among older users, particularly those aged 65 and up, where it holds a 16% mental market share—a segment where other AI brands are less established.
Morning Consult warns that the next two quarters are “decisive” for Microsoft. The report concludes that “Copilot is everywhere, but it is for what?” Noting that without a sharper brand identity, Microsoft risks becoming the “preinstalled-but-unused” option as the market consolidates around ChatGPT for conversation, Gemini for information, and Claude for professional work.
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