Democrats hold an 8-point lead (50%-42%) over Republicans in the battle for control of Congress, the largest margin for either party in the NBC News poll since 2018, as voters express significant disappointment with President Donald Trump’s performance on key issues.
The national poll, conducted October 24-28, 2025, shows President Trump’s overall job approval rating dipping to 43%, a 4-point drop since March, with 55% disapproving.
- Economy & Cost of Living: Around two-thirds of registered voters say the administration has fallen short of their expectations on the cost of living (66%) and the economy (63%).
- Constitutional Rights: A majority (52%) of voters believe Trump has done more to undermine the U.S. Constitution than protect it.
- Government Shutdown: The ongoing government shutdown is largely blamed on Trump and congressional Republicans (52%), though a historically high 42% also blame congressional Democrats.
Key Issues and Party Advantages
Protecting democracy and constitutional rights is a top concern for about a quarter of voters deciding their congressional vote. This has given Democrats an advantage on related issues:
- Protecting Democracy: Democrats lead by 11 points.
- Protecting Constitutional Rights: Democrats lead by 8 points.
- Health Care: Democrats hold a 23-point lead.
Despite Democratic gains, the Republican Party maintains strong advantages on issues that fueled Trump’s 2024 victory:
- Border Security: Republicans lead by 31 points.
- Crime: Republicans lead by 22 points.
- Immigration: Republicans lead by 18 points.
Enthusiasm and Party Views
Voter interest in the 2026 midterm elections is exceptionally high, with 66% rating their interest at a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale.
- Democratic Enthusiasm: Democrats have a 7-point enthusiasm edge over Republicans (74% vs. 67% highly interested), similar to their edge in the 2018 midterms.
- Trump as a Factor: A majority of voters (70%) say their vote will be a message of support for or opposition to the president. A plurality (40%) wants to send a signal of opposition.
- Party Favorability: Despite their lead, the Democratic Party’s favorability remains low, with just 28% viewing it positively, compared to 37% for the Republican Party.
The poll also revealed that 50% of registered voters view the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency negatively, a spike since 2020. Among racial groups, two-thirds of Black and Hispanic voters view ICE negatively.
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from Oct. 24-28, 2025, with a margin of error of $\pm 3.1$ percentage points.
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