An active, multi-day stretch of severe weather is unfolding across the U.S. Plains and Midwest this week, bringing a widespread threat of destructive winds, large hail, flash flooding, and isolated tornadoes. AccuWeather meteorologists issued multiple risk assessments stretching from Sunday through Friday, tracking a volatile weather pattern moving through the nation’s midsection and into southern Canada.
The stormy stretch began Sunday afternoon with two distinct threat zones. The primary focus targeted northeastern Wyoming, eastern Montana, and southeastern Saskatchewan, with storms moving east across the Dakotas and southern Manitoba overnight. A secondary pocket of severe weather brought localized hazards from central West Virginia to northeastern North Carolina and Virginia’s Eastern Shore.
Forecasters designated western North Dakota and southern Canada as a high-risk zone for Sunday night’s activity.
“This has the potential to be a high-end damaging wind event with gusts exceeding hurricane-force (74 mph) in many locations,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty. “Power outages can be widespread, along with some structural damage. While isolated tornadoes are possible, the primary concern in this area will be widespread, destructive winds.”
Douty added that the strongest Sunday storms could yield golf-ball to baseball-sized hail, threatening vehicles and buildings.
On Monday, the severe weather risk shifts south and west, targeting a zone from the Oklahoma Panhandle to southern South Dakota. These afternoon and evening storms are expected to generate hail and damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 85 mph.
The threat intensifies and moves northward again on Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are projected to develop Tuesday afternoon from northeastern Nebraska and northwestern Iowa into southern Canada. Meteorologists issued a moderate risk rating for portions of North and South Dakota.
“Storms will first initiate Tuesday afternoon across western North Dakota and South Dakota then move east throughout the evening and into the overnight hours,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Lauren Bader.
Bader noted the main hazards will include torrential downpours, hail, damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes. Travel disruptions are anticipated for motorists along Interstates 29, 90, and 94.
Midweek is expected to bring another significant surge in severe weather. On Wednesday, the storm zone will span from Winnipeg, Canada, through the Midwest and into parts of the Mississippi Valley. A moderate risk is currently active from Winnipeg to western Wisconsin, encompassing major metropolitan areas including Omaha, Minneapolis, and Des Moines. Forecasters indicated this zone could be upgraded to a high risk if conditions warrant.
“Wednesday could end up being just as active or even more active than Sunday with damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes as storms interact with energy and spin in the atmosphere,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Peyton Simmers.
By Thursday and Thursday night, a passing front will push the storm risk eastward, stretching from eastern Kansas to Michigan. While these storms are expected to lose some intensity compared to Wednesday’s system, any that turn severe remain capable of producing hail, downpours, isolated tornadoes, and wind gusts up to an 80 mph Local StormMax™.
The week-long weather pattern will finally push into parts of the Ohio Valley and the Appalachians on Friday as the cold front continues its eastward progression.
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