The United States is bracing for a significant wildfire season this year, with forecasters warning that between 5.5 million and 8 million acres could burn across the country.
While the total number of individual fires may actually be lower than last year, experts say the blazes that do ignite are likely to grow larger and more intense, fueled by deepening drought and a meager winter snowpack.
AccuWeather is currently projecting between 65,000 and 80,000 wildfires for 2026. For comparison, about 5.1 million acres burned in 2025. This year’s shift toward higher acreage suggests a trend of “megafires” that are harder to contain and capable of scorching vast stretches of the landscape.
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A Summer of Heat and Smoke
The risk is most acute across the Western U.S., where a combination of record-breaking spring heat and low humidity has already primed the terrain. In California, the danger is expected to build steadily through the summer months.
“The spring season brought record-breaking heat to California early, which has rapidly melted off a meager snowpack from the winter season,” noted AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham. He added that while late-season storms triggered a brief spurt of vegetation growth, that new greenery will quickly turn into dry “fuel” as temperatures soar in June.
The threat isn’t just local to the flames. Because these fires are expected to be massive, smoke plumes could travel thousands of miles, hazying skies and dropping air quality levels in the Midwest and East Coast.
Regional Breakdown
The heart of the danger zone includes Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, Idaho, and western Montana. While the annual monsoon season can bring much-needed rain to these areas, it also brings lightning—a “double-edged sword” that often sparks new fires in dry timber.
- The Northwest: Risk is expected to ramp up in July and August as mountain snow disappears.
- The Plains: Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas remain on high alert, particularly during windy days with low humidity.
- The East and Midwest: These regions are expected to stay relatively quiet thanks to frequent summer rain and higher humidity, though the Shenandoah Valley and Blue Ridge Mountains could see brief periods of risk.
In the Southeast, Florida may deal with early-season fires where drought lingers, but meteorologists expect tropical moisture to dampen that risk as the season progresses.
“With fewer fires but more acres burned predicted, it means that the wildfires that do occur could become large, scorching extensive areas before being contained,” the report concludes. For residents in the West, the forecast serves as a stark reminder to prepare for a long, smoky summer.
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