Hurricane Melissa has undergone explosive rapid intensification over the exceptionally warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and is now forecast to strengthen into a Category 5 major hurricane within the next 48 hours, posing a historic and catastrophic threat to parts of the western Caribbean.
The storm’s slow movement, combined with its intensity, has led to dire forecasts for Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba, which are bracing for widespread life-threatening impacts beginning early next week.
“Melissa exploded in intensity over the warm waters of the Caribbean,” stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys. “The warmest waters in the entire Atlantic basin have provided an abundance of energy for this hurricane to strengthen and unleash tremendous amounts of rain and powerful winds.” Roys noted that Melissa could become the season’s third Category 5 storm.
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Catastrophic Flooding and Storm Surge Expected
Torrential rainfall is the most significant threat, with the mountainous terrain across the islands expected to amplify runoff, leading to catastrophic flash flooding, landslides, and road washouts.
- Rainfall: Widespread rainfall amounts of 24-36 inches are likely across southwestern Haiti to eastern Jamaica. Reports of fatalities from mudslides have already surfaced in Haiti.
- Winds: Prolonged periods of high winds are expected to down trees, damage infrastructure, and lead to extended power outages.
- Storm Surge: A destructive storm surge is expected through early next week along the southern coast of Jamaica and southeastern Cuba.
“The catastrophic rainfall, destructive storm surge, and the storm’s slow movement will test Jamaica’s infrastructure,” Roys warned. “Widespread flooding, road washouts, and mudslides, combined with power and communication outages, could leave some communities cut off for weeks.”
U.S. East Coast Faces Coastal Threat
While Melissa is forecast to remain hundreds of miles off the U.S. East Coast, impacts will still be felt at many beaches. Strong onshore winds and large waves from the hurricane could bring rough surf and increased beach erosion from South Florida to the Northeast.
Furthermore, a separate coastal storm, potentially a Nor’easter, is forecast to develop later this week. The combination of Melissa offshore and the developing coastal system could “stir hazardous surf and flooding” with gusty winds and downpours from late October into early November. Coastal areas are advised to prepare for rough surf, minor flooding, and intensified beach erosion, especially in areas already compromised by previous storms.
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