With just over a week remaining until the November 4 election, the race for New York City mayor has narrowed significantly, according to a new poll released Monday by Suffolk University.
Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor, has halved the lead of Democratic and Working Families Party nominee Zohran Mamdani, reducing it from 20 points in September to just 10 points.
The latest Suffolk poll, conducted from October 23-26, shows Mamdani leading Cuomo 44% to 34%. Republican nominee and independent Curtis Sliwa follows with 11%. The remaining four candidates listed on the ballot garnered 2% collectively, with 7% of voters still undecided and 2% refusing a response.
Key Shifts and Demographic Gains
Cuomo’s surge is notably fueled by dramatic gains among Hispanic voters and independents.
- In the current poll, Cuomo now holds a slim 1-point lead among Hispanic voters, a major turnaround from September when he trailed Mamdani by 30 points in this key demographic.
- The former governor has also flipped the independent vote, moving from an 18-point deficit in September to a 10-point lead in the October survey.
The survey of 500 NYC likely General Election voters was conducted after independent Mayor Eric Adams endorsed Cuomo, a factor the poll’s organizers note may have contributed to the shift. This is the first public poll in over three months to show the race this close.
Sliwa’s Voters Become Decisive
The poll results highlight the outsized role that Curtis Sliwa’s supporters could play in the final outcome. “It’s Republican Curtis Sliwa, whose voters hold the 11% blocking Cuomo from winning the race,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
The data suggests that if Sliwa’s voters were to abandon their candidate, they would overwhelmingly favor Cuomo. When asked for their second choice, Sliwa voters preferred Cuomo over Mamdani by a margin of 36% to 2%.
Cost of Living Looms Large
The poll also touched on voter sentiment regarding affordability, finding that a majority of respondents (54%) describe life today in New York City as “somewhat or very unaffordable.” The pool of respondents was nearly equally divided between homeowners and renters.
Other candidates listed on the ballot are independent Mayor Adams, Conservative Party nominee Irene Estrada, and independents Joseph Hernandez and Jim Walden.
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