Forecasters Increase Development Chances for Next Named Storm
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has raised its forecast for a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic, increasing the likelihood that it will develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm. As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook on Sunday, the system was producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
According to forecasters, “Although dry and stable air is expected to limit development during the next couple of days, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.”
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The NHC’s projected area of formation suggests the system could pose a threat to parts of the Caribbean.
The NHC has assigned a 10% chance of development within the next two days, but a significantly higher 70% chance over the next seven days. If the system were to strengthen into a named storm, it would be named Tropical Storm Gabrielle.
The Atlantic hurricane season reached its climatological peak on September 10, though the NHC notes that 60% of annual activity historically occurs after this date. So far, the season has seen only six named storms, with the last one, Tropical Storm Fernand, dissipating in late August. Only one of these storms, Hurricane Erin, reached hurricane strength, developing into a massive Category 5 system with 160 mph winds. However, it remained in the Atlantic and did not make landfall.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its season forecast in early August, predicting 13 to 18 named storms, with five to nine of those becoming hurricanes.
Of the hurricanes, two to five were projected to become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
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