A disturbance in the Caribbean Sea is strengthening and is expected to become a tropical storm later today, posing a threat to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and potentially the Florida Keys and Gulf Coast later this week.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, which is located in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Data from Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicates the system has a closed center and is likely to become a tropical storm soon.
READ: AccuWeather Warns Of Potential Hurricane Threat To US Gulf Coast
Forecast Track and Intensity:
The disturbance is currently moving northeastward but is expected to turn north and then northwest, approaching Jamaica by late Monday. It is then forecast to pass near or over the Cayman Islands and Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm today and could become a hurricane by Tuesday night. Dangerous impacts from hurricane-force winds and storm surge are possible in the Cayman Islands and portions of Cuba.
After reaching the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week, the forecast track becomes more uncertain. However, the system is expected to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm later this week.
Watches and Warnings:
EARLIER REPORT, READ: NHC Update: Caribbean Disturbance Poised To Become Tropical Depression: Threatens Jamaica, Cuba
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica.
- Tropical storm watches could be issued for portions of the Florida Keys tonight or early Monday.
Potential Impacts:
- Jamaica: Heavy rain and tropical storm conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday.
- Cayman Islands and Cuba: Risk of hurricane-force winds and storm surge Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Florida Keys: Possible tropical storm conditions later this week.
- Northern Gulf Coast: Potential impacts later this week, but it is too early to determine the specifics.
Heavy Rainfall and Flooding:
The system is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and Cuba, through mid-week. This could lead to flooding and mudslides. Heavy rainfall could also spread northward into Florida and the Southeast U.S. later in the week.
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