Both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers are predicting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, citing warmer-than-average ocean temperatures and other atmospheric factors. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
NOAA’s National Weather Service forecasters released their outlook today, predicting a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The agency forecasts a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), with 6-10 becoming hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and 3-5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA holds a 70% confidence in these ranges.
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Meanwhile, CSU’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software (TC-RAMS) Team, in their initial April 3 forecast, predicted 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. The CSU team noted that the 2025 season is exhibiting characteristics similar to several past highly active seasons, including 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2017.
“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”
Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm highlighted the widespread impact of hurricanes, noting, “As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities. NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”
Factors Driving the Outlook
Both NOAA and CSU point to warmer-than-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures as a primary driver for the increased activity. Higher heat content in the ocean provides more energy to fuel storm development.
According to forecasters, other contributing factors include continued ENSO-neutral conditions (with a low probability of El Niño), forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon.
Weaker wind shear allows storms to develop without disruption, and the West African monsoon can produce tropical waves that seed powerful Atlantic storms. The absence of El Niño conditions, which typically increase wind shear and disfavor hurricane formation, further contributes to the above-normal outlook.
Improved Forecasts and Preparedness Efforts
NOAA is implementing several improvements for the 2025 season to enhance forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts:
- An upgrade to NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System is expected to yield another 5% improvement in tracking and intensity forecasts.
- NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will issue tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds, providing more preparation time.
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook has been extended from two weeks to three weeks.
- NHC will offer Spanish language text products for key advisories and outlooks.
- An experimental version of the forecast cone graphic will now depict inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings.
- NHC will provide a rip current risk map when active tropical systems are present.
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New innovative tools are also being deployed, including an experimental electronically scanning radar system (ROARS) on NOAA’s P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft to collect data on ocean waves and wind structure within hurricanes, and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center’s experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal for advance notice of rain and flash flooding.
CSU’s forecast team also provides probabilities of major hurricanes making landfall, with a 51% chance for the entire U.S. coastline (compared to an average of 43%), and elevated probabilities for the U.S. East Coast, Gulf Coast, and the Caribbean.
“This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens,” said Ken Graham, NOAA’s National Weather Service Director.
Both agencies emphasize that these outlooks are for overall seasonal activity and are not landfall forecasts. Residents in hurricane-prone areas are urged to remain vigilant and prepare for the upcoming season. Updates to these forecasts will be issued throughout the season.
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