Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. The official outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, puts the chance of a below-normal season at 55%. Meanwhile, there is a 35% chance of a near-normal season and just a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
The agency expects a total of 8 to 14 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Out of those storms, 3 to 6 are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes, which are Category 3, 4, or 5 storms with winds reaching 111 mph or higher. NOAA states it has a 70% confidence in these predicted ranges. For comparison, an average season usually brings 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”
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NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., added, “NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people. These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”
The lower forecast for the Atlantic season comes down to a few competing weather factors. An El Niño weather pattern is expected to develop and get stronger during the hurricane season. El Niño conditions typically cut down the number of tropical storms and hurricanes. On the flip side, ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal, and trade winds will likely be weaker than average, two factors that usually make a season more active.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
NOAA notes that this outlook measures overall seasonal activity based on large climate patterns. It is not a landfall forecast and does not predict exactly where or when a storm will hit, as those events are decided by short-term weather patterns.
“Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm. Visit weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov for important preparedness information,” Graham said.
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