An early-season nor’easter is forecast to develop this weekend just off the East Coast, threatening a long-lasting period of strong winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding from the Carolinas all the way to Southern New England.
Though it’s only the first half of October, coastal residents are being urged to prepare for a powerful storm system that could linger for days.
The system is expected to take shape as a coastal low-pressure center, developing along a stationary front off the Southeast U.S. coast. The storm is a classic nor’easter—defined by the strong, persistent northeasterly winds that will circulate into the coast.
Forecast Timeline and Precursor Impacts
Before the main storm hits, high pressure will build over the Northeast on Thursday and Friday, bringing clear, cool weather to the upper half of the coast. However, the brewing system to the south is already making its presence felt.
- Through Friday: Onshore winds are already driving high surf and dangerous rip currents along the Southeast coast. Localized showers, with heavy rain at times, will affect the Atlantic coast of Florida on Thursday and spread to parts of the Carolinas on Friday. Coastal flooding, particularly during high tides, is expected to reach moderate levels in some areas, including Charleston, South Carolina.
- The Weekend and Early Next Week: The low-pressure system is expected to gradually strengthen and track northward just offshore, becoming a formidable nor’easter. Impacts are forecast to begin in the Carolinas on Friday and spread northward over the weekend, with the storm likely lasting through Monday before gradually weakening or pulling farther offshore on Tuesday. This prolonged duration means multiple high-tide cycles will be affected, exacerbating coastal issues.
READ: Powering Through Peril In Florida: Essential Generator Safety As Hurricane Season Looms
Potential Impacts: Winds, Rain, and Flooding
The primary concerns from this long-duration event are widespread coastal impacts and the risk of localized flooding.
- High Surf and Coastal Flooding: Several consecutive days of onshore flow will push ocean water toward the coast, leading to coastal flooding at high tide from Florida up to New England. Coastal flooding is expected to reach moderate levels in some spots, which could inundate streets and low-lying roads. Forecasters caution that this repeated tidal flooding will likely cause significant beach erosion, particularly in vulnerable areas like North Carolina’s Outer Banks, where nine homes have already collapsed this year.
- Strong Winds: Gusty winds are forecast to develop along the coast, beginning in North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Saturday and spreading to Long Island and Southern New England on Sunday and Monday. These winds are expected to be strong enough to cause scattered tree damage and power outages in certain areas.
- Heavy Rain: Bands of heavy rain will pinwheel ashore along the Eastern Seaboard from the Southeast to coastal New England. Rainfall totals may exceed 3 inches in some coastal areas from this weekend through early next week. This heavy rain may contribute to flash flooding and will aggravate coastal flooding in low-lying areas.
A Hybrid Storm? The Potential for “Karen”
The storm is non-tropical in its formation, developing along a stationary front and powered by jet stream winds—a classic nor’easter. However, since the system will develop over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, forecasters are monitoring a slight chance that the storm could acquire subtropical characteristics.
If the low-pressure circulation warms up enough, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) would classify it as a Subtropical Storm.
Should this transition occur, the storm would be named Karen—the next name on the list for the 2025 hurricane season. For now, the chances of this transition are considered low, and regardless of a name, the destructive coastal impacts are expected to remain the same.
Residents along the entire East Coast are advised to monitor official weather alerts from the National Weather Service and prepare for a wet, windy, and potentially damaging holiday weekend.
READ: Atlantic Showdown To Kick Off: Lightning And Senators Drop The Puck On New Season
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