As Israel and Iran trade blows in a war that has the whole world on edge, there are a number of issues that the press at large has not discussed, but have world-changing implications.
First, let us remind ourselves how we got here in the first place. Israel in general, and Netanyahu in particular, have been beating the drum about Iran for decades. We have, even back in the 90’s, heard that Iran was just “a year away” from having a nuclear bomb. Then it was months away; then weeks away. All of this was exacerbated by Iran’s bellicose rhetoric about “wiping the Zionist entity from the face of the earth” because Israel is a “cancer” that must be removed.
What country would want to put up with this kind of verbal threat for years without doing something about it?
The question, however, is: What is the end game?
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Regime change would certainly be one that is on the table. But this is where things start to get dicey.
Israel’s attempt to cut the legs out from Iran’s uranium enrichment program is laudable from a Western perspective. The fear that a totalitarian country with the ability to produce multiple nuclear weapons is certainly a first-class problem. And the West is still dealing with such a problem in the form of North Korea, a bizarre and unpredictable land.
That, of course, brings up the old expression of the “moose on the table”—that which everybody knows is there, but nobody wants to talk about. We refer to the possibility that Iran already has a nuclear weapon. If so, this weapon may not be home grown, but may have been purchased, or gifted, by a North Korea or, say, Pakistan.
Even though Iran’s scientists are top notch, they may not have the expertise to miniaturize a nuclear device, or how to mount one on a delivery vehicle. Certainly, we are seeing some very sophisticated missiles coming with frequency into Tel Aviv and other areas of Israel, including hypersonic ones that travel many times the speed of sound.
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If it is true that Iran is in possession already of such a weapon then, of course, the urgency meter goes off the scale.
Now imagine if the Iranian regime is toppled in the next few weeks.
Who is going to fill the void?
The idea that a Westernized democratic government will arise in Iran is, at best, wishful thinking. Even a so-called “moderate” regime may still be anti-Israel and pose a threat. Would Israel then send the IDF on the ground to confront the Revolutionary Guard, or what is left of them?
Let’s take it a step further: Iran’s present government falls—and it is replaced by an even more radical and hostile regime who has no qualms pushing the button immediately.
Is Mossad already in Iran, trying to stop such a scenario? No one can say.
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The other piece on the chessboard is whether and when the United States enters the fray, would be enough for the present Iranian leadership to cast all reservations to the wind and deploy the weapon?
One can almost hear the conversation going on in Tehran: “The Israelis will certainly kill us all for this—but we will die as martyrs for erasing the Zionist cancer!”
Taking the Iranian government’s hatred of Jews and Israel, and its radical Islamic stand, this is not farfetched at all.
But, like water bursting through a dam, there is no way to put the water back or patch up the dam. The situation is what it is, and no one can tell how all this will ultimately end.
Meanwhile, Israelis huddle in bomb shelters wondering if life will ever get back to normal, and Iranians, on all sides, wonder if they will still have a country when the smoke clears.
The world watches anxiously hoping for the best—and prays that the fuse will be disarmed before it is too late.
Joseph M Bianchi is an author and journalist based in Greenville, SC. His work has appeared in a number national and international publications.
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