The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially has its first named storm, and meteorologists are already warning that more dangerous weather is brewing closer to land.
Tropical Storm Amanda formed roughly 1,500 miles southwest of Mexico’s Baja Peninsula. Because it is sitting halfway between Mexico and Hawaii, forecasters say it will not threaten any landmasses. “Amanda will likely survive another day or two as it curves northwestward into cooler waters,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
While Amanda spins harmlessly out at sea, forecasters are tracking two separate areas of concern near Central America and southwestern Mexico. These systems are expected to organize over the weekend or early next week, fueled by ocean temperatures well into the 80s Fahrenheit.
“There is a slight chance Amanda could strengthen into the season’s first hurricane, but the separate developing systems near Central America and southwestern Mexico have a greater likelihood of becoming hurricanes and one could even reach major hurricane strength if it remains over water long enough,” DaSilva said.
Meteorologists note that low wind shear and warm waters could trigger rapid intensification, threatening Mexico’s southwestern coast with damaging winds, storm surge, flash flooding, and mudslides. The timing could also interfere with major international events. “If one or both of the storms were to come ashore in western Mexico, a plume of tropical moisture could spread well inland and potentially affect weather conditions around the opening match of the FIFA World Cup in Mexico City on June 11,” DaSilva cautioned.
The sudden burst of activity aligns with predictions for an unusually busy year in the region. AccuWeather is projecting 17 to 22 named storms and nine to 13 hurricanes for the eastern Pacific season, which runs through November 30. Of those, at least six are expected to directly strike western Mexico or Central America.
A primary driver behind this aggressive forecast is the emergence of El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
“Looking at temperature anomalies in recent weeks and at present, it appears that El Niño has begun, as we anticipated it would,” said AccuWeather’s Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok. “We are just waiting on the official word from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at this point.”
Forecasters believe this El Niño could strengthen significantly, potentially ranking among the strongest on record and creating highly favorable conditions for strong cyclones across both the eastern and central Pacific fields.
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