The nation’s housing market showed a mixed performance in September, as pending home sales remained unchanged from the prior month, according to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).
While the overall Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) saw no change month-over-month, it recorded a modest 0.9% decline year-over-year.
The flat national figure masks significant regional variations:
- The Northeast led with a strong 3.1% increase month-over-month and a 0.5% year-over-year gain.
- The South also posted increases, rising 1.1% from August and 0.9% from a year ago.
- The Midwest experienced the largest drop, falling 3.4% month-over-month and 1.5% year-over-year.
- The West saw a slight 0.2% monthly decrease, but a significant 5.3% drop compared to September of last year.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that contract signings matched the second-strongest pace of the year, but emphasized that activity is still below the level needed for a healthy market.
“A record-high stock market and growing housing wealth in September were not enough to offset a likely softening job market,” Yun stated.
However, Yun expressed optimism for the near future, citing improving conditions for buyers:
- Inventory has reportedly climbed to a five-year high, providing buyers with more choices and room for price negotiation.
- Mortgage rates are trending toward three-year lows, which is expected to further improve affordability.
Yun also cautioned that a potential government shutdown could temporarily slow home sales activity.
The REALTORS® Confidence Index survey showed slight changes in market sentiment:
- Buyer traffic expectations for the next three months rose slightly, with 20% of NAR members anticipating an increase (up from 19% last month).
- Seller traffic expectations remained unchanged from the prior month, with 19% of members anticipating a rise.
The PHSI is a forward-looking indicator, with pending contracts typically leading to closed sales within one to two months.
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