On the morning Roe v. Wade was overturned, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was in such a foul mood she couldn’t even tell reporters “good morning” to open her daily briefing.
But eventually, she did say that abortion would be “on the ballot” in November, suggesting Democratic voters would rally behind the fallen Roe precedent and punish pro-life Republicans.
A new poll taken in the wake of the collapse of Roe tells a different story, however.
It suggests Republicans are still taking over Congress this fall.
The pollsters behind the Economist/YouGov poll asked a wide array of questions, including about the Mississippi case that ended Roe.
At the end, 49 percent of those surveyed said they disagreed with the Supreme Court’s decision.
But when asked who they would vote for if their congressional district election were held today, 45 percent said the Republican candidate, compared to 40 percent who answered Democratic.
That’s significant because 35 percent of those polled identified as Democrats, compared to just 26 percent who said they were Republicans.
The poll also uncovered some reasons why Pelosi’s wishful thinking remains just that.
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When asked what issues were most important to them when considering how to vote in November, 49 percent described abortion as “very important” to them.
That ranked 10th on a list of 15 issues. Ahead of abortion were inflation, the economy, taxes, crime, civil rights, civil liberties, guns, national security, and health care. Immigration was right behind, at 47 percent.
Viewed differently, the pollster asked which single issue was “most important” to respondents. Seven percent replied abortion, which tied with taxes for sixth out of 15 issues. Ahead of abortion were the economy, climate change, healthcare, inflation, and civil rights.
And that’s in a poll where 36 percent answered they were pro-choice, compared to 25 percent who were pro-life.
Another nugget explaining why Pelosi is hoping against hope pertained to President Joe Biden.
In the poll, Biden’s approval rating was underwater, 41 percent for and 53 percent against. His job approval rating fared worse, with only 36 percent approving and 55 percent disapproving.
On other issues, 71 percent said the country was on the wrong track, 53 percent rated the U.S. economy as “poor,” and 58 percent said they believe the country is already in a recession.