Republicans have the double-digit support of independent voters on the generic Congressional ballot across most major polls, according to releases by polling firms over the week.
Congressional Republicans are leading Democrats by 11 points among independent voters according to Data for Progress, a left-wing polling firm that works closely with the Democratic Party, which conducted the poll. Republicans are also capturing a majority of independents’ support, with 52% for them versus 41% for Democrats.
Other polls confirm this lead, with NPR & Marist reporting a 12-point lead (45% to 33%) and Cygnal reporting a 9-point lead (51% to 42%). The largest lead was reported by Quinnipiac University, whose poll showed the GOP with a 15-point lead among independents (49% to 34%), making for an average lead of 11 points among the group, outside all margins of error.
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2022 Generic Congressional Ballot among Independent voters
Data for Progress (D)
GOP — 52% (R+11)
Dem — 41%
GOP — 49% (R+15)
Dem — 34%
GOP — 45% (R+12)
Dem — 33%
GOP — 51% (R+9)
Dem — 42%
𝐀𝐕𝐄𝐑𝐀𝐆𝐄: 𝟒𝟗𝐑-𝟑𝟖𝐃 (𝐑+𝟏𝟏)
The lead, less than five days before voters go to the polls on Nov. 8, presents a significant advantage for the GOP among a group considered essential to electoral victories.
More American voters identify themselves on surveys and are registered to vote as independents than any political party, according to the University of Oxford.
Moreover, it also comes as anxiety about stating one’s voting intentions has reached a new high. As many as 66% of independent voters are “afraid” of stating their voting intentions in public, according to a new survey by the Convention of States and the Trafalgar Group, which also revealed that 60% of independents believe their friends and family “are voting Republican” in the midterm elections.
Many of the polls reporting the GOP’s lead skew Democratic, according to FiveThirtyEight, such as Quinnipiac, with a 0.5% Democratic skew, and Cygnal, with a 2.1% Democratic skew. Only Marist, which has a FiveThirtyEight reliability grade of “A,” has an insignificant skew of 0.1% towards Democrats.
The polling reports come as Republicans expect to win control of both houses of the 118th Congress, elections for which will be held across the United States on Nov. 8. FiveThirtyEight gives the GOP an 85% chance of winning control of the House of Representatives and a 55% chance of winning control of the Senate.