U.S. outlook: After another record-setting year for operator revenue in 2025, several high-population states enter 2026 with momentum that points to larger public tax receipts. Nationally, commercial gaming revenue through November 2025 reached $71.49 billion, up 8.7% year over year—an indicator that state coffers should see further growth as those run rates carry into the new year.
The 2026 Baseline
Industry growth is broad-based. The American Gaming Association’s tracker shows steady gains across verticals in 2025, with two-thirds of states growing traditional casino revenue in November. “The unprecedented success of our industry comes as more Americans than ever before allocate their entertainment budgets to gaming,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller. That tailwind, combined with continued brand expansion online, sets a higher starting point for 2026 tax collections.
States Likely To Lead in 2026
New York — New York closed 2025 with nation-leading monthly figures, including December gross gaming revenue of about $260 million and more than $130 million flowing to the state that month alone. Given sustained high wagering volumes into year-end, New York remains the top candidate for 2026 tax intake.
Pennsylvania — The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board reported a record $6.39 billion in FY 2024/2025 operator revenue, generating roughly $2.98 billion in tax revenue and fees. With both iGaming and sportsbooks contributing, Pennsylvania enters 2026 with one of the country’s most reliable tax bases from gaming.
New Jersey — State data show higher year-to-date internet gaming and sports wagering revenue through late 2025, supporting steady tax collections into 2026, even as quarterly net revenue at some properties was flat. The mix shift toward online continues to underpin receipts.
Michigan — November 2025 online gaming and sports betting produced $335.7 million in gross receipts; monthly state taxes and payments from this sector regularly eclipse $50 million, implying a strong contribution profile heading into 2026.
Illinois — Illinois has legalized most forms of gambling and posted record late-2025 volumes, including a $1.66 billion handle in November and nearly $70 million in state tax receipts that month. Continued scale from national leaders suggests elevated 2026 receipts relative to early-2025 levels.
Nevada — While FY 2024/2025 finished just shy of a record, the state still reported multiple billion-dollar months in 2025; visitor trends and strong table/slot win underpin a stable 2026 outlook for percentage-fee collections.
What Brand Growth Signals for State Coffers
Market leaders’ results provide another lens on 2026. Flutter’s FanDuel and DraftKings together controlled roughly two-thirds of U.S. sportsbook share in 2025, with both guiding to double-digit U.S. revenue growth for the year. DraftKings reported $1.14 billion in Q3 2025 revenue (up from Q3 2024) and previously raised full-year 2025 guidance; Flutter has highlighted continued FanDuel expansion across core states. Stronger top-line performance from these brands typically maps to larger taxable bases in the biggest markets.
How We Estimated 2026
This outlook synthesizes late-2025 operator and state revenue trackers, year-to-date tax flows, and brand performance to identify likely leaders. The key assumption is that 2025 exit rates (Q4 run rates) persist into 2026, absent unusual swings in win rates or consumer demand. Sources include state gaming agencies and industry earnings materials.
New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey appear best positioned to post the largest 2026 tax hauls, with Michigan and Illinois close behind on the strength of growing online revenue and late-year volume. Nevada remains a consistent contributor, supported by tourism and convention calendars that anchor gaming win.
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