Following a historic lull, forecasters urge vigilance as conditions are set to become more favorable for tropical storm development in late September.
After an unusually quiet stretch during what is typically the busiest time of the Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather experts are warning that the calm may soon be over. Despite this week’s rare lack of named storms, which marks the first time in nearly a decade that the climatological peak of the season has passed without one, conditions are ripe for a significant increase in tropical activity later this month.
According to AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, surges of dry air, which AccuWeather predicted in their March forecast, have been responsible for suppressing tropical development.
This phenomenon, known as the Saharan Air Layer, has been a key factor in keeping the Atlantic Basin quiet. However, this is expected to change soon.
Forecasters anticipate less dry air and disruptive wind shear in the coming weeks, paving the way for storms to form.
Unprecedented Warmth Fuels Concerns for Rapid Intensification
The greatest concern for experts is the state of the Gulf of Mexico, where sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content have surged to new record highs for this time of year. DaSilva described the exceptional warmth as “troubling,” explaining that these warm waters act as a significant source of fuel for developing storms.
“Conditions are primed for explosive, rapid intensification,” DaSilva warned. The record-high ocean heat content, which measures the depth of warm water, means that storms that form or move into the Gulf of Mexico in late September could strengthen very quickly, posing a greater risk to coastal communities. This forecast is consistent with AccuWeather’s pre-season predictions, which called for a more active second half of the season.
Staying Prepared is Key
With the potential for increased activity, experts are urging the public, businesses, and officials to remain prepared. AccuWeather’s 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast, which called for 13 to 18 named storms and 3 to 6 direct U.S. impacts, remains on track.
The forecast also highlighted a higher-than-average risk for direct impacts to regions like the Florida Gulf Coast, Texas, and Louisiana. As the season progresses, staying informed with the latest forecasts and having a plan in place will be more critical than ever.
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