election predictions

Reality Check Insights Releases its 2020 Presidential Election Predictions

SAN FRANCISCO, UNITED STATES, November 2, 2020 /EINPresswire.com/ — In advance of the Presidential Election, Reality Check Insights applies its Targeting Model to estimate the national and state vote share for Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Joe Biden is expected to win the two-party vote share, 54.5% to 45.5% for Donald Trump.

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By estimating the vote share in each state, Reality Check Insights also predicts an electoral college victory for Joe Biden, 374 – 164.

The Reality Check Insights Targeting Model uses multilevel regression with synthetic poststratification to generate estimates for the target population and subpopulations (in this case, presidential vote intentions for the country and each individual state). These estimates represent the most likely outcomes based on the Reality Check Insights Targeting Model. The model also estimates uncertainty. National uncertainty is +/- 4%, with state-level uncertainties ranging from +/- 3.2% to 9.7%.

All data used in the Reality Check Insights Targeting Model are from the firm’s State of America III Survey.

Methodology: Reality Check Insights State of America III Survey was conducted from Oct. 17-26 (N = 1,350). Respondents were recruited through both random address-based sampling (where respondents completed interviews either online (via smart phone or computer) or by calling a toll-free number) and opt-in sampling through online advertising (with all interviews completed online). Respondents recruited through random address-based sampling were given the option to complete the survey in English or Spanish, and online recruitment included advertising in English and Spanish. From a broad pool of online participants, quota sampling based on age, race and ethnicity, gender, education, income, region, and partisanship was used to determine eligibility for inclusion in the sample.

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