U.S. consumer confidence staged a significant comeback in May, interrupting a five-month streak of declines, The Conference Board reported Tuesday. The Consumer Confidence Index® leaped by 12.3 points to 98.0, up from a revised 85.7 in April.
The rebound was largely fueled by a more optimistic outlook for the future. The Expectations Index—reflecting consumers’ short-term views on income, business, and labor market conditions—surged an impressive 17.4 points to 72.8. Despite this sharp increase, the index remains below the 80-point threshold, which historically can signal a potential recession ahead.
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The Present Situation Index, which gauges consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, also rose by 4.8 points to 135.9.
Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board, noted the timing of the sentiment shift. “Consumer confidence improved in May after five consecutive months of decline,” she stated. “The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards.”
Guichard elaborated that the monthly improvement was “largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—rose from their April lows.” However, she also pointed out a lingering concern: “While consumers were more positive about current business conditions than last month, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month.”
The upswing in confidence was widespread, seen across all age and income groups, and among all political affiliations, with Republicans showing the strongest improvement. Despite the monthly gain, the six-month moving average for confidence still reflected previous declines across these demographics.
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Key drivers and observations from the May survey include:
- Stock Market Outlook: Consumers’ views on stock prices improved significantly, with 44% expecting an increase over the next 12 months, up from 37.6% in April.
- Tariffs and Inflation: Tariffs remained a primary concern, though some consumers expressed hope that trade deals could support economic activity. While inflation and high prices were still significant worries, mentions of easing inflation and lower gas prices also appeared.
- Recession Fears Ease: The perceived likelihood of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months declined.
- Purchasing Intentions Rise: Plans to buy homes, cars, and take vacations increased notably, with significant gains observed after the May 12 trade announcement. Intentions to purchase big-ticket items and services also saw an uptick.
- Consumer Financial Behavior: A special survey question revealed that 36.7% of consumers put money aside for future spending. Conversely, 26.6% dug into savings to cover expenses, and 26% postponed major purchases. These behaviors varied by income, with wealthier households more likely to save.
- Affordability vs. Job Security: Consumers expressed greater concern about the affordability of necessities and desired goods (nearly half) than about job security (less than a quarter).
The survey’s preliminary results had a cutoff date of May 19, 2025, with about half the responses collected after the May 12 announcement regarding a pause on some tariffs on Chinese imports.
The Conference Board will release the next Consumer Confidence Index® on Tuesday, June 24th, at 10 AM ET.
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