New polling data is throwing a cold bucket of water on expectations for a Democratic sweep in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. Despite a significant portion of the American public souring on President Donald Trump’s performance, recent numbers suggest that voters aren’t necessarily rushing into the arms of the opposition.
On Tuesday’s “CNN News Central,” chief data analyst Harry Enten broke down the figures for anchor John Berman, revealing a strange disconnect between the President’s personal unpopularity and the actual competitive landscape for Congress.
According to a fresh CNN survey, 77% of Americans now blame Trump for the rising cost of living, with more than 70% specifically citing him as the reason for their strained wallets.
“I think this poll serves as a big time reality check for Democrats, and that is it ain’t over yet,” Enten said during the broadcast. He pointed out that despite the President’s sagging approval ratings and the fallout from recent military actions in Iran, the expected “blue wave” hasn’t actually gained more momentum. In fact, it’s shrinking.
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Aggregate polling shows that the Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot has been cut in half over the last year. In March of 2025, Democrats held a comfortable six-point advantage when voters were asked which party should control Congress. Today, that lead has dwindled to just three points.
“It is within the margin of error,” Enten explained. “So, despite all of the talk about Donald Trump’s unpopularity, the fact is, Republicans very much remain in the game when it comes to the congressional midterms.”
The numbers get even more complicated for Democrats when looking at specific issues. While Trump’s approval rating is currently sitting at 36 points “underwater,” the Democratic Party’s own approval ratings are struggling to stay higher than his. When it comes to the most vital issue for most voters—the economy—the two parties are locked in a literal stalemate.
“Which party is trusted more in the economy? It’s a tie among registered voters,” Enten told Berman. “Just because Donald Trump is unpopular doesn’t make Democrats popular. And when you match Democrats against Republicans, all of a sudden it is a dead heat.”
With redistricting changes looming and the economy remaining a toss-up in the eyes of the electorate, the data suggests that the 2026 race for the House remains anyone’s game, regardless of the headlines surrounding the White House.
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