A new report indicates potential challenges for numerous wind and solar projects following legislative changes and altered federal policy.
A report from Enverus, an energy data and analytics firm, suggests that the phasing out of wind and solar subsidies under the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025” (OBBBA) could significantly affect the U.S. renewable energy landscape.
The analysis indicates that 30% of proposed or developing solar projects and 57% of wind projects may be financially viable as federal subsidies and tax breaks conclude by 2030.
These findings emerge amidst recent policy adjustments impacting the U.S. renewables sector. A leaked memo from July 16 indicated a new requirement for proposed wind and solar projects on federal lands or offshore waters to receive direct approval from the Interior Secretary.
READ: Bessent’s Boom: Tax Cuts, Cheap Energy, And Deregulation To Ignite Historic U.S. Growth
This development follows a July 7 executive order, titled “Ending American Dependence on Unreliable Energy Sources,” which directs cabinet officials to enforce OBBBA provisions and revise regulations regarding preferential treatment for wind and solar compared to other energy sources. The order also instructs the Treasury Secretary to terminate specific clean electricity tax credits and implement enhanced foreign entity restrictions.
Enverus Energy Research Analyst Corianna Mah, co-author of the report, stated that their analysis focused on onshore wind and solar projects, excluding offshore wind due to factors such as interconnection costs and supply chain inflation.
The report identifies variations in project survival rates across states. Texas, a leading state in installed wind and solar capacity, is projected to have a 6% survival rate for solar projects in its ERCOT grid interconnection queue. In contrast, Illinois and Indiana anticipate survival rates of 40% and 41% for solar, respectively, while California and Arizona project near-100% survival. Mah attributed these differences to the varying values of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs).
READ: “Big Beautiful Bill” Hailed As Game Changer For Hispanic Families Facing High Energy Costs
In Texas, RECs primarily used for voluntary compliance trade at approximately $3/MWh, whereas markets like California’s CAISO, with mandatory compliance requirements, see REC prices between $20-$30/MWh. Similar trends were noted for onshore wind projects, with lower survival rates in Texas, Iowa, and Illinois, and higher rates expected in Montana and Oklahoma.
These findings are consistent with a separate study by FTI Consulting Sr. Director Dan Goodwin, which also anticipates an impact on wind and solar from the OBBBA’s provisions.
The potential reduction in anticipated wind and solar capacity coincides with increasing power demand, particularly from AI technologies and associated data centers. Both the Enverus and FTI studies project that much of this demand will be met by expanded gas-fired generation in the near-to-mid-term, with nuclear generation contributing in later years.
READ: “One Big Beautiful Bill” Poised To Unleash Affordable And Reliable Energy, CEA Says
The recent announcement of $92 billion in new private sector investments for an AI datacenter hub outside Pittsburgh, PA, appears to support this outlook. The evolving energy landscape presents a dynamic situation for future energy supply.
Please make a small donation to the Tampa Free Press to help sustain independent journalism. Your contribution enables us to continue delivering high-quality, local, and national news coverage.
Connect with us: Follow the Tampa Free Press on Facebook and Twitter for breaking news and updates.
Sign up: Subscribe to our free newsletter for a curated selection of top stories delivered straight to your inbox.
