The preliminary field for California’s 2026 gubernatorial contest is shaping up as a narrow race between Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Katie Porter, according to a new Emerson College Polling survey.
While both candidates lead the pack, a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided, and key shifts in voter sentiment suggest potential challenges ahead for Porter.
Hilton Edges Porter in Early Ballot
The poll shows the race for Governor remains highly fluid, with a large plurality of voters (39%) currently undecided.
Republican Steve Hilton holds a slight lead, drawing 16% support from California voters. Democrat Katie Porter follows closely at 15%. Republican Chad Bianco secured the third-highest share of support at 11%. Other notable Democrats, Xavier Becerra and Antonio Villaraigosa, each garnered 5% support.
While Porter has maintained consistent support among her own party (23% of Democrats support her), her standing with independent voters has softened. Support for Porter among independents decreased from 16% in September to 11% in the current survey.
Porter’s Favorability “Underwater” as Hilton’s Views Improve
The survey highlighted a potential hurdle for Katie Porter’s candidacy: her personal favorability rating is net negative.
- Katie Porter has a 26% favorable rating and a 35% unfavorable rating.
- Steve Hilton, by contrast, enjoys a more positive view: 21% favorable and only 12% unfavorable.
- Chad Bianco holds a 19% favorable and 14% unfavorable rating.
Senator Alex Padilla remains the most favorably viewed Democrat tested, with a 40% favorable and 28% unfavorable rating.
Economy and Housing Dominate Voter Concerns
The polling data indicates that pocketbook issues remain the primary driver for California voters.
- The economy (30%) and housing affordability (26%) are the top issues facing the state.
- Trailing these concerns are threats to democracy (12%) and immigration (11%).
Nationally, the economy (30%) is also cited as the top issue, with threats to democracy (28%) a close second.
Proposition 50 and Current Approval Ratings
Despite the focus on the gubernatorial race, the survey also indicated that Proposition 50, a measure to authorize temporary changes to state congressional maps, is likely to pass, with 57% support among likely voters.
Governor Gavin Newsom holds a 48% job approval rating, with 41% disapproving. President Donald Trump holds a 37% job approval rating in California, with 60% disapproving.
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