Saint Leo University Polling Results for Florida Give Biden an Edge over Trump

ST. LEO, FL – The Saint Leo University Polling Institute (polls.saintleo.edu) found in its most recent Florida survey that Democrat Joe Biden was leading President Donald J. Trump in the presidential race. The results showed 49.2 percent of those surveyed favored Biden, compared to the 43.4 percent who supported Trump for re-election.

st leo poll

The survey polled 500 Floridians online between Sept. 27 and Oct. 2, completing the data collection before Trump announced he had tested positive for COVID-19. Almost all the Floridians described themselves as likely voters. The margin of error for the overall survey base is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

The question was worded this way, with these results reported:

            If the November presidential election was held today between Joe Biden

           and Donald Trump, which candidate did you or will you support?

Joe Biden49.2
Donald Trump43.4

Biden was attracting the votes of 92.6 percent of the Democrats surveyed, and Trump was getting 88.6 percent of the GOP base, results showed. Among independents, 43.4 percent favored Biden, and 38.0 percent favored Trump.

In other demographic groups:

  • More white respondents favored Trump, with 56.4 percent of Caucasians in the survey supporting the incumbent, while 38.1 percent supported Biden.
  • Among Hispanic respondents, Biden had the lead with the support of 54.0 percent of those polled, while 38.1 percent of Hispanics supported Trump.
  • Among African-American respondents, 80 percent supported Biden. Trump had 8.8 percent.
  • In general, more women liked Biden: he got the support of 55.2 percent of female respondents, compared to 37.2 percent for Trump.
  • Age mattered in the survey. In the group of respondents age 65 and above, 53.3 percent favored Biden, compared to 40.6 percent for Trump. Younger people, aged 18 to 44, also split more for Biden, but the Democrat’s lead was smaller there: 51.1 percent supported Biden, compared to 41.7 percent for Trump.
  • There was some split among Catholic voters in the survey. Trump attracted 54.4 percent of the Catholics in the survey and Biden had 41.6 percent. Biden is Catholic.

Frank Orlando, Saint Leo University Polling Institute director, is available for comments.

About the Poll

METHODOLOGY: This statewide survey was conducted from September 27 through October 2, among a base of 500 respondents, using an online instrument. The sample has an associated margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence for questions asked of all 500 respondents.

The survey mirrors a national survey conducted at the same time among 1,000 respondents, with an associated margin of error of +/- 3.0 percent at a 95 percent confidence for questions asked of all 500 respondents.

The Saint Leo University Polling Institute conducts its surveys using cutting-edge online methodology, which is rapidly transforming the field of survey research. The sample is drawn from large online panels, which allow for random selections that reflect accurate cross sections of all demographic groups. Online methodology has the additional advantage of allowing participants to respond to the survey at a time, place, and speed that is convenient to them, which may result in more thoughtful answers. The Saint Leo University Polling Institute develops the questionnaires, administers the surveys, and conducts analysis of the results. Panel participants typically receive a token incentive—usually $1 deposited into an iTunes or Amazon account—for their participation.

The Saint Leo University Polling Institute survey results about national and Florida politics, public policy issues, Pope Francis’ popularity, and other topics, can also be found here: http://polls.saintleo.edu. You can also follow the institute on Twitter @SaintLeoPolls.

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