Travelers are facing a sharp reality check at the check-in counter as major airlines warn that soaring jet fuel prices will push ticket prices higher.
Despite assurances from the Trump administration that the current price spike is a temporary byproduct of the ongoing conflict in Iran, industry leaders are bracing for a prolonged period of high expenses.
The International Air Transport Association reports that jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the start of Operation Epic Fury, moving in lockstep with a volatile crude oil market.
While President Trump stated on March 16 that these increases would be short-lived, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby offered a grimmer outlook. In a March 20 press release, Kirby estimated that oil prices could hit $175 per barrel and likely won’t return to the $100 mark until late 2027.
The financial strain is already hitting the bottom line. “If oil prices stayed where they are today, that’s $11 billion of expenses for us,” Kirby said during a March 24 interview with Bloomberg Television. He noted that airfares would need to climb by 20% just for the airline to break even. To manage costs, United plans to cut weekday and red-eye flights and suspend service to Tel Aviv and Dubai.
Because most U.S. carriers no longer hedge fuel costs, these price swings are passed directly to passengers. Data from Business Insider shows the impact on popular routes; for example, United fares from New York to London jumped from $285 in February to $846 by late March. Delta and American Airlines have seen similar spikes, with Delta’s fares for the same route hitting $553.
READ: Trump Announces Near-Total Destruction Of Iranian Military And Nuclear Capabilities
Other carriers are looking for alternative revenue streams. JetBlue told AP News it has raised checked baggage fees by up to $9 to help keep base rates competitive. Internationally, Air France added a $57 surcharge to long-haul tickets, and Cathay Pacific announced a 34% hike in fuel surcharges starting April 1.
The industry’s struggle comes as CEO Scott Kirby moves away from his recent alignment with the administration. Kirby previously supported the White House on issues like government reopening and tariff plans. However, the aviation sector is still reeling from a November Department of Transportation shutdown that grounded 10% of traffic at 40 major airports.
On the government side, the administration remains focused on domestic production. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced Wednesday that 2025 offshore production reached a record 714 million barrels.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright also highlighted efforts to mitigate costs, including ordering Sable Offshore Corps. to reopen its California pipeline system.
The duration of the conflict remains the primary uncertainty. While Iran recently rejected a 15-point peace proposal from President Trump, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that negotiations remain active. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told reporters Tuesday that the President alone will determine when military objectives are met.
“I can tell you that, when this is over, oil prices are going to go down very, very rapidly,” President Trump told reporters on March 16, maintaining his stance that the war would end “pretty quickly.” For now, however, American Airlines CEO Robert Isom confirmed a $400 million hit to his company’s first-quarter expenses, suggesting that even with record domestic production, the cost of flying will remain tethered to the front lines.
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