Philadelphia enters the 3-0 showdown with a 1-4 history vs. Tampa Bay, where Jalen Hurts’ struggles against the blitz will test the Over/Under of 44.5 points.
TAMPA, Fla. – The Week 4 clash between the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0) in Tampa Bay is not just a battle for NFC supremacy—it’s a high-stakes betting challenge.
The Eagles, despite their perfect record, are only 3.5-point favorites on the road with the Over/Under set at 44.5 points, reflecting the historical difficulty they have had against the Buccaneers.
The primary reason for the tight line lies in the recent history of this matchup, a narrative that has favored the home underdog. The Buccaneers are the one team that appears to have the Eagles’ number, especially when it comes to quarterback Jalen Hurts.
In five career games against Tampa Bay, Hurts has a poor track record, throwing for just nine total touchdowns to six turnovers. The Buccaneers’ defensive success is rooted in blitzing Hurts on a staggering 45% of his dropbacks, which has limited him to a 53% completion rate and a meager 4.8 yards per dropback. Coach Nick Sirianni’s 1-4 record against the Buccaneers further highlights this consistent struggle.
The Offensive Conundrum for Philadelphia
To overcome the Buccaneers and cover the spread, the Eagles’ offense must find a solution to their stalled running game. Teams are stacking the box to contain Saquon Barkley, who is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry through the first three games. Philadelphia has faced an eight-man box on 32.3% of its run plays, the third-highest rate in the league.
Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown acknowledged the need for change: “We have to help him out as well, get the passing game going to help the run game. Last year, it was kind of like the opposite. So now we have to do the opposite.” If the Eagles can get their passing game going early—with Brown and DeVonta Smith healthy, unlike previous matchups—they may force the Buccaneers’ defense to shift, opening up lanes for Barkley.
Buccaneers’ Offense Still Threatening Underdog Play
The Buccaneers’ offense, while losing Mike Evans to a hamstring injury, is still poised to challenge the Eagles’ defense. Rookie Emeka Egbuka has emerged as a deep threat with 14 catches for 181 yards and three touchdowns, earning Baker Mayfield a 133.1 passer rating when targeting him. With Chris Godwin expected to return, Tampa Bay has the weapons to keep pace, putting pressure on the Over/Under total of 44.5.
The Buccaneers are a surprising 3-0, though they have won all their games in the final minute, posting a narrow scoring margin of just six points. This indicates they are vulnerable but clutch.
Prediction: Eagles Expected to Break the Trend
Despite being on “upset alert” and the moneyline tempting with the Buccaneers at +164 odds, this Eagles team is different. They have key offensive starters back who missed last year’s blowout. This game will hinge on how Hurts handles the early pressure. Having gone 18-of-30 for 168 yards against the blitz this season for an 86.5 rating, the hope is he is better equipped to handle Tampa’s pressure this time.
The prediction is that the Eagles take the Bucs in Tampa.
Final Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Buccaneers 23.
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