A classified CIA assessment warning that Venezuela’s old guard is the only force capable of preventing immediate chaos reportedly drove President Donald Trump’s controversial decision to back a key Maduro regime figure as interim leader, sidelining the country’s prominent opposition movement.
The intelligence analysis, briefed to the President and a tight circle of top advisers, concluded that insiders from Nicolás Maduro’s administration are best positioned to maintain short-term stability following the dictator’s removal by U.S. forces, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.
While the report did not explicitly recommend regime change, it analyzed “day-after” scenarios, identifying Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as a primary candidate capable of holding the country together. The assessment suggested that opposition leader María Corina Machado and Edmundo González—widely recognized as the legitimate winner of the 2024 election—would likely face insurmountable resistance from Venezuela’s entrenched military, drug-trafficking networks, and security forces.
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That grim forecast appears to be the catalyst behind Trump’s pivot to Rodríguez, a move that surprised many international observers who expected immediate support for the democratic opposition.
“I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader if she doesn’t have the support within, or the respect within the country,” Trump said regarding Machado during a Saturday press conference. “She’s a very nice woman, but she doesn’t have the respect.”
According to sources familiar with the review, the CIA determined that preventing a rapid collapse of the Venezuelan state depends entirely on the next leader’s ability to command the loyalty of ruling elites.
The agency also flagged Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino as powerful brokers, though their utility to Washington is limited by U.S. indictments and deep-seated hostility toward the United States.
A “Realistic” Pivot
The White House has framed the strategy as a pragmatic necessity. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the President’s national security team is making “realistic decisions” to align Venezuela with U.S. interests.
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Those interests were laid bare on Saturday when Trump declared that the U.S. intends to “run” Venezuela’s oil industry, citing the need to repair infrastructure shattered by years of mismanagement.
“We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies… go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure… and start making money for the country,” Trump said, dismissing the possibility of immediate elections. “We have to nurse the country back to health.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth briefed lawmakers on the situation Monday. Rubio reportedly suggested that the U.S. could leverage control over sanctioned oil shipments to pressure Rodríguez, who was sworn in early Monday.
Opposition Response
Despite the political snub, María Corina Machado has refrained from attacking Trump directly. In an interview with Fox News on Monday, she even offered to share her recently awarded Nobel Peace Prize with the President.
However, she offered a blistering critique of the U.S.-backed interim president.
“Delcy Rodríguez, as you know, is one of the main architects of torture, persecution, corruption, narco-trafficking,” Machado said, vowing to return to Venezuela as soon as possible. “She’s the main ally and liaison with Russia, China, Iran… And she’s really rejected, repudiated by the Venezuelan people.”
Meanwhile, the man at the center of the upheaval, Nicolás Maduro, appeared in federal court in New York City on Monday, pleading not guilty to charges including narco-terrorism.
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