American drivers are seeing the numbers on the gas pump creep upward once again. According to the latest data from AAA, the national average for a gallon of regular unleaded rose another penny on Monday, hitting $4.11.
This latest uptick marks the fifth consecutive day of rising costs. It follows a brief mid-month reprieve where prices dipped to $4.02, but the trend has firmly reversed. Despite the recent climb, current averages remain slightly below the $4.17 peak recorded on April 9.
The volatility in the energy market is tied directly to the lingering fallout from the conflict in Iran. While President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire on April 7, the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for global oil shipments—remains effectively closed to tanker traffic.
Over the weekend, Iranian officials stated that “under no circumstances” would the strait return to its pre-war traffic patterns, a move that sent global oil futures higher in Monday trading.
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The prolonged closure has forced major financial institutions to rethink their economic outlooks. Goldman Sachs recently hiked its crude oil price forecasts for the remainder of 2026, citing a significant drop in supply from the Middle East.
The bank now expects Brent crude to average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter, up from its previous $80 estimate. Similarly, the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is now projected to hit $83 a barrel instead of $75.
In a note to clients on Sunday, Goldman Sachs analysts warned of “larger” economic risks stemming from “upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock.”
The bank’s current baseline assumes that oil exports from the Gulf will not normalize until at least the end of June, a delay from its original mid-May target. However, if the deadlock continues into late July, Goldman warned that Brent prices could surge past $100 a barrel by the end of the year.
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The market sentiment appears to align with these concerns. Before the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, Brent was trading at roughly $73 a barrel.
Today, futures contracts show prices hovering between $86 and $90 for the final quarter of the year. Other institutions are following suit; Citi has also adjusted its fourth-quarter forecast upward to $80 a barrel as the industry braces for a longer recovery than initially anticipated.
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