AccuWeather meteorologists have lowered their 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast as a rapidly strengthening El Niño creates unfavorable atmospheric conditions for tropical storms.
Forecasters now expect 8 to 11 named storms, 3 to 4 hurricanes, and 1 to 2 major hurricanes for the season. The single most likely scenario calls for nine named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane. Despite the decrease in overall numbers from earlier outlooks, the anticipated number of direct U.S. landfalls remains unchanged at four.
“We expect more frequent episodes of disruptive wind shear that can make it difficult for tropical systems to develop and strengthen,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “That gives us greater confidence in lowering the total number of named storms, but it does not eliminate the risk of a damaging hurricane strike in the United States.”
AccuWeather initially predicted 11 to 16 named storms in March before adjusting the range down to 8 to 14 in July.
The primary driver behind the reduced Atlantic activity is a Pacific warming trend that forecasters say is almost certain to reach “Super El Niño” status for the first time since 2015. From mid-July to mid-August, sea-surface temperatures in the monitored Pacific region averaged 2.0°C above historic norms. Ocean temperatures could approach or surpass the record set during the 1982–1983 event, when water ran 2.4°C above normal.
“It really does not matter whether this is a record or very strong El Niño. It is about the impacts, and the impacts will not change either way,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range meteorologist. “We are seeing a strong impact in both the Atlantic, and Pacific basins, with extreme wind shear limiting Atlantic storm development, while the Pacific basin remains quite active, as we forecast back in the spring.”
Beyond suppressing Atlantic hurricanes, the weather pattern is projected to significantly alter continental U.S. weather through the fall and winter months.
“When you have a strong El Niño, it changes the weather pattern across much of the country. Some areas become much wetter; others stay warmer than the historical average, and those shifts can have a big impact on flooding, drought, tropical activity, and even early-season snowfall,” Pastelok said.
The seasonal outlook projects an active southern storm track with elevated flood risks extending from the Southwest to the Southeast, along with eventual drought relief across the South. Conversely, the northern tier of the country is favored to see above-average temperatures, the Midwest faces drier winter periods with reduced snowfall, and the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are more likely to experience early-winter rain or mixed precipitation instead of prolonged cold.
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