Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University are sticking with their prediction for a well-below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, pointing to a powerful El Niño that continues to suppress storm formation across the basin.
In an updated forecast released Wednesday, the CSU Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software (TC-RAMS) team expects a total of nine named storms this year. Four of those are predicted to reach hurricane status, with just one expected to develop into a major hurricane of Category 3 strength or higher.
The numbers include Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha, which both formed earlier in the year. The revised forecast remains significantly below the 30-year seasonal averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Atmospheric conditions across the Caribbean and Atlantic are being heavily influenced by El Niño, a climate pattern defined by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. El Niño increases upper-level westerly winds over the Atlantic, creating strong vertical wind shear that tears potential storms apart before they can organize or intensify.
Researchers noted that vertical wind shear was unusually high throughout July, confirming that El Niño is already exerting a strong influence on atmospheric circulation. While ocean surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean have warmed slightly in recent months—conditions that typically fuel tropical activity—forecasters expect the high wind shear from El Niño to easily overpower the warmer water.
“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 1965, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2009 and 2015 seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science and the report’s lead author. “Our analog seasons all had below-average Atlantic hurricane activity. The relative lack of activity in our analog seasons increases our confidence in a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.”
Overall activity for 2026 is projected to reach only about 40% of the long-term average calculated between 1991 and 2020. That marks a sharp contrast to 2025, when activity hit 105% of the seasonal norm, capped by Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm that devastated Jamaica, causing 93 deaths and approximately $12 billion in damage.
Along with fewer storms, the forecast calls for a lower probability of major hurricane landfalls along North American and Caribbean coastlines:
- Entire U.S. coastline: 16% chance of a major hurricane landfall (average is 43%).
- U.S. East Coast (including Florida Peninsula): 7% chance (average is 21%).
- U.S. Gulf Coast (Florida Panhandle to Texas): 9% chance (average is 27%).
- Caribbean: 17% chance (average is 47%).
The team also measures Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a metric that tracks storm duration and intensity. CSU predicts an overall ACE score of 50 for the season, well under the average of 123. The proportion of energy generated west of 60 degrees west longitude—where most landmasses sit—is also expected to be lower than usual, a common trend during El Niño years.
To generate the forecast, the team utilized a combination of historical analog years, two statistical models, four physics-based dynamic climate models, and a new machine-learning model called the Ai2 Climate Emulator (ACE2).
Despite the reduced threat overall, researchers warned coastal residents against letting their guard down.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” said co-author Michael Bell.
This year marks the 43rd seasonal forecast issued by CSU since the late Professor Emeritus Bill Gray started the program in 1984. Funding for the 2026 report was provided by Ironshore Insurance, the Insurance Information Institute, Gallagher Re, Insurance Auto Auctions, Commodity Weather Group, and the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation.
READ: Heavy Rain And Flash Flood Risk Target Central And Eastern US Through The Weekend
Please make a small donation to the Tampa Free Press to help sustain independent journalism. Your contribution enables us to continue delivering high-quality, local, and national news coverage.
Sign up: Subscribe to our free newsletter for a curated selection of top stories delivered straight to your inbox.
