With less than 50 days remaining until the March 3 primary, the race for the Democratic Senate nomination in Texas has taken a shifting turn. According to a new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released Thursday, state legislator James Talarico has opened a nearly double-digit lead over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
The survey indicates that 47% of Democratic primary voters currently back Talarico, while 38% support Crockett. Another 15% of voters remain undecided as the two candidates vie for the chance to challenge Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
A Demographic Divide
The polling data reveals a stark contrast in the coalitions supporting each candidate. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that Talarico holds a significant 22-point advantage among male voters, while female voters are split almost evenly between the two.
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Ethnic demographics show further splits within the party base:
- Hispanic Democrats: Break heavily for Talarico (nearly 60%).
- Black Democrats: Strongly favor Crockett (eight in ten).
The General Election Stakes
The winner of the Democratic primary will likely face a tough general election, though the survey suggests the specific Republican opponent matters heavily.
Texas Republicans are currently embroiled in a fractured three-way primary race. Attorney General Ken Paxton leads slightly with 27%, followed closely by Sen. John Cornyn at 26%, and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 16%. Crucially, nearly 30% of GOP voters are undecided.
The data suggests Paxton may be the most vulnerable Republican in a general election matchup:
- Versus Paxton: Both Crockett and Talarico are statistically tied with the Attorney General.
- Versus Cornyn or Hunt: The Republicans hold leads of roughly 3 to 5 points over both Democrats.
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Campaign Context
Both Democratic hopefuls bring different strengths and baggage to the final stretch of the campaign. Talarico has demonstrated significant fundraising prowess, reporting a nearly $7 million haul in the final quarter of 2025.
Crockett, who entered the race in early December, has faced scrutiny recently regarding past comments. In a 2024 interview, she sparked controversy by suggesting Latino voters had a “slave mentality” for supporting restrictive immigration policies. Additionally, her stated strategy—telling CNN in December that she does not need to persuade GOP voters to win statewide—contrasts with traditional strategies in Texas, a state Democrats haven’t won statewide since 1994.
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What’s Next
On the Republican side, if no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to a May 26 runoff. All three major GOP candidates are currently competing for an endorsement from President Donald Trump, who has yet to weigh in.
The Emerson College survey was conducted between Jan. 10 and 12, sampling 413 Democratic primary voters with a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
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