A staggering $580 million wave of oil trades hit the market Monday morning, landing just minutes before President Donald Trump announced a sudden de-escalation in hostilities with Iran. According to a report by the Financial Times, anonymous traders moved more than 6,000 futures contracts for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude during a frantic two-minute window between 6:49 a.m. and 6:50 a.m. ET.
The timing has raised eyebrows across the financial world. At 7:23 a.m. ET—only 33 minutes after the trades were finalized—President Trump took to Truth Social to reveal that the U.S. and Iran had engaged in “very good and productive conversations” to resolve the conflict that began on February 28.
The President’s post detailed a potential breakthrough, stating he had instructed the “Department of War” to postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days.
“I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities,” Trump wrote.
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Market veterans say the scale of the pre-announcement trading was far from normal. One hedge fund portfolio manager told the FT that the volume was “really abnormal” for a Monday morning with no obvious news on the horizon. “It’s an unusually large trade for a day with no event risk,” he noted, adding, “Somebody just got a lot richer.”
While it is currently unclear if the trades were executed by a single entity or a group, the move has sparked intense criticism. Economist Chris Martenson shared the news on X, stating, “If nobody goes to jail for this, we’ve entered the ‘every man for himself’ stage of empire decline.”
The White House has pushed back against any suggestion of internal leaks. Spokesman Kush Desai told the FT that the administration “does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge,” dismissing claims of misconduct as “baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
This incident follows a string of highly accurate, high-stakes bets on geopolitical events. CNN recently reported on a Polymarket user who netted $1 million with a 93% success rate betting on military actions involving Israel and Iran.
Nick Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, told CNN that such patterns, including a $400,000 win by a user who predicted the ousting of Nicolás Maduro just hours before his capture in January, serve as “strong signaling of insider activity.”
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