CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten took to the airwaves Thursday to dismantle what he calls a growing “myth” in American politics: the idea that President Donald Trump is losing his grip on the Republican Party. Despite a rocky national climate fueled by the ongoing war in Iran, Enten’s deep dive into polling numbers suggests that the president’s core remains as solid as ever.
Speaking with Kate Bolduan on CNN News Central, Enten highlighted that the president’s popularity among registered Republicans currently sits at 84%.
To put that in perspective, Enten pointed out that this is almost identical to the 85% approval he held at this same point during the 2018 midterm cycle, and significantly higher than the 76% he saw in 2022.
“When it comes to Republican voters and Donald John Trump, he absolutely still has the juice,” Enten said. “And when you’re a Republican and you go against Trump, you get voted off the island.”
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That “island” analogy isn’t just a figure of speech. Enten pointed to Indiana’s primary results this week as a fresh example of the president’s influence. Five Republican state lawmakers lost their seats after defying Trump on a backed redistricting proposal.
The president had explicitly vowed to retaliate against those who broke ranks, and the voters followed through. Enten noted that those who cross the president quickly find themselves without a job in the next session.
The data also reveals a massive enthusiasm gap between different wings of the party. According to an ABC-Washington Post survey cited by Enten, 60% of voters who identify as “MAGA” believe it is more important to vote in the upcoming 2026 midterms than in previous years.
In contrast, only 36% of non-MAGA Republicans feel the same urgency. Enten characterized this group as voters who would “go over hot coals” to get to the polls.
However, the picture isn’t entirely rosy for the administration. While the base is locked in, the broader American public is showing fatigue over the war in Iran.
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Enten previously described the conflict as “horribly unpopular,” citing polls where 64% of respondents said the war was not worth the subsequent spike in gas prices. This national sentiment seems to be bleeding into the independent vote.
Polling shows Trump’s approval among Republican-leaning independents has slid to 53%, a sharp drop from the 73% mark he held with that same demographic during the midpoint of his first term.
Ultimately, Enten’s analysis paints a picture of a deeply polarized landscape. While Trump faces significant headwinds with the general electorate and independents due to the economic costs of the war, his command over the Republican primary engine remains historically high.
“The people who really love him, they’re the ones who are absolutely juiced up to go out and vote,” Enten concluded, signaling that the “Trump effect” is likely to dominate the GOP’s performance in the 2026 cycle.
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