CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten reported on Wednesday that the Democratic Party has significantly narrowed the gap in its bid to reclaim the U.S. Senate following the 2026 midterm elections. According to data from Kalshi prediction markets, the probability of Democrats winning the Senate has climbed to 46%, a sharp rise from 28% in January.
Enten noted that while the House of Representatives has long been viewed as a likely pick-up for Democrats—with current market odds sitting at 84%—the Senate is now within striking distance.
“We’ve been talking about the House and pretty much every historical market, all the prediction markets, all the polling indicates that the Democrats are in the catbird seat,” Enten said. “But how about combining it with the United States Senate? That is taking back the whole enchilada, taking back all of Congress.”
The shift in momentum coincides with a decline in President Donald Trump’s approval ratings among key demographics during his second term. Among independent voters, the President’s net approval has dropped to -38 points.
For historical context, this is notably lower than the marks held by former Presidents George W. Bush (-26) and Barack Obama (-18) at the equivalent point in their respective second terms.
Polling data suggests a disconnect between the administration’s current agenda and voter priorities. A recent Fox News poll found that 60% of the overall electorate believes the Trump administration is focusing on the “wrong things,” a sentiment shared by 78% of independent voters.
Enten highlighted this trend, asking, “Are you focusing on what people actually care about?”
While the economy and immigration were the primary drivers behind Trump’s 2024 victory, recent polling indicates growing dissatisfaction in these areas. RealClearPolitics averages show a 57.1% disapproval rating regarding the President’s handling of the economy.
Similarly, an NBC News poll released Sunday found that 54% of Americans disapprove of the administration’s immigration policies, compared to 44% who approve.
Despite the Democratic gains, Republicans currently maintain the edge in the Senate, with prediction markets giving them a 53% chance of retaining control. However, Enten characterized the Democratic trajectory as a steady climb. “It’s not yet at 50 percent, but it is clearly rising,” he said.
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