Tropical Depression Two is tracking slowly northwest at 3 miles per hour toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to a Monday morning advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Data collected by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight indicated that atmospheric pressure within the storm is continuing to drop. Peak wind speeds were recorded at 30 knots, prompting weather forecasters to slightly raise the storm’s current wind estimates.
Satellite imagery shows limited convection and fragments of storm activity around the circulation center, constrained by broad storm structure and dry mid-level air. However, forecasters expect low to moderate wind shear to allow the system to strengthen into a tropical storm later today.
A Tropical Storm Watch is currently active for parts of the Florida Panhandle and the Alabama coastline, where tropical storm conditions could arrive starting Monday night into Tuesday. Officials advise residents in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas to closely monitor the system, as additional watches may be issued over the next 24 to 48 hours.
A system is currently positioned between two mid-level ridges over the Rockies and the Bahamas. As a trough moves across the northeastern United States later in the week, the ridge over the Rockies is expected to redirect the storm on a more westward trajectory. Present forecast tracks show the system approaching the mouth of the Mississippi River within 72 hours.
Beyond 36 hours, increasing northeasterly wind shear is expected to cap further intensification. As the system moves closer to land, interaction with terrain is projected to cause gradual weakening beyond 60 hours, with a potential for the system to dissipate after 72 hours.
Heavy rainfall from the storm brings a risk of localized flash flooding through Friday across Gulf Coast communities and adjacent inland areas stretching from western Florida to the middle Texas coast.
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