Tropical Rainstorm Dolly is speeding west across the Atlantic at 24 mph with 40-mph winds, but forecasters say it faces hostile atmospheric conditions and mountainous islands that will likely weaken it over the coming days.
Satellite imagery showed that Dolly was already struggling Friday morning, with its low-level circulation left mostly exposed as rain and thunderstorms were pushed away from the center. Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center noted that increasing wind shear, dry air, and the system’s rapid forward motion will limit strengthening.
“In fact, all of the reliable models show the storm gradually losing strength and degenerating into a trough of low pressure before it reaches the Lesser Antilles this weekend,” the Hurricane Center stated.
In the near term, the system is forecast to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Caribbean starting late Saturday through early next week. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected from the northern Lesser Antilles across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola to the southern Bahamas, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ reaching 12 inches. While the rainfall will help drought-stricken areas, forecasters warn it may cause localized flash flooding, especially in higher terrain.
As Dolly approaches the Greater Antilles early next week, environmental factors and land interactions are expected to disrupt the storm further.
“It is likely that wind shear and land interaction with the islands will prevent any rapid intensification and could cause Dolly to lose wind intensity and become very disorganized early next week,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “If Dolly can survive the dry air, wind shear and land interaction near the islands, the environment does become more conducive for development and strengthening off the Southeast U.S. coast mid to late next week.”
Forecasters point out that atmospheric conditions could become much more favorable once the system clears the Caribbean.
“Wind shear is forecast to be low in the zone near the Bahamas with warm enough water to support re-intensification, provided Dolly has not been completely wrecked by mountainous terrain and wind shear beforehand,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. “Should Dolly survive or come back to life, it could be a concern for the southeastern United States late next week.”
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