A tropical rainstorm in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is bringing heavy rain and the threat of flash flooding to the southeastern United States, as meteorologists track its potential to intensify into a stronger tropical system.
Forecasters at AccuWeather say the system could organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Tuesday. If it strengthens, the storm could bring gusty winds and storm surge to areas stretching from the central Gulf Coast to Florida.
Rainfall has already started across parts of northern and western Florida this weekend. The storm is projected to move into the Florida Panhandle or the Big Bend region before spreading heavy rain across the broader Southeast through early next week.
“A tropical rainstorm has developed in the northeastern Gulf,” said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “This tropical rainstorm will likely move into the Florida Panhandle or the Big Bend area, bringing flooding rain across portions of the southeastern United States. While rainfall will be welcome across portions of the Florida Panhandle due to an ongoing drought, the flooding risk can be increased due to dry soil. This dry, hard soil can allow the water to run off instead of being absorbed right away.”
Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected from southern Florida through the panhandle. Localized areas could see 4 to 8 inches of rain, and forecasters warn that a maximum of 15 inches is possible in the hardest-hit spots.
Experts are also tracking a westward shift in the storm’s track, which could pull the heaviest rainfall into the coastal regions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.
The primary concerns from the system include localized flash flooding, travel delays, and road closures, alongside a heightened risk of dangerous rip currents and waterspouts along the northeastern Gulf Coast. Despite the flood risk, the precipitation is expected to provide some relief to areas of the Florida Panhandle currently experiencing drought conditions.
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