As the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season looms this Sunday, AccuWeather hurricane experts are closely monitoring both active tropical weather in the Pacific and potential new development in the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Alvin is currently on track to bring significant rainfall to Mexico’s Baja California Sur this weekend, while a low-risk zone for tropical development has been identified in the Caribbean Sea starting next week.
Tropical Storm Alvin, the first named storm of the Eastern Pacific season, is expected to bring 1-2 inches of rainfall to Baja California Sur, with localized amounts up to 7 inches, raising concerns for flash flooding and landslides. “Gusty winds and heavy flooding rain will be confined to near the coast of Baja California Sur,” said an AccuWeather hurricane expert.
READ: East And South U.S. Slammed By Record Wet May; Severe Storms, More Rain On Horizon
The storm is categorized as less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico, a scale that considers factors beyond just wind speed, such as flooding rain and storm surge. Moisture from Alvin could also extend into the Four Corners region of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, potentially leading to flash flooding.
Meanwhile, with the Atlantic hurricane season officially commencing on June 1st, AccuWeather is forecasting another active year. Their 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast, released in March, predicts 13 to 18 named storms, exceeding the 30-year historical average of 14.
An increased risk of impacts reaching far inland, days after landfall, is also anticipated.
“AccuWeather is forecasting three to six direct impacts to the U.S. this season,” stated AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter. He urged coastal residents and those far inland to prepare by stocking emergency supplies, reviewing insurance policies, and understanding evacuation routes.
READ: EV Owners In Florida Brace For Potentially Active Hurricane Season, Take Unique Precautions
A low-risk zone for tropical development in the Caribbean Sea has been identified for June 6-13. Atmospheric conditions, including a pulse of low pressure moving through the region and a reduction in disruptive winds, are expected to become more conducive for development.
“For these reasons and a reduction in disruptive winds in the region, we believe there is a low chance for tropical development,” noted AccuWeather Tropical Meteorologist Alex Duffus. Should a tropical depression or storm form, its exact track will depend on its rapid intensification and steering breezes at the time. AccuWeather experts indicate a near-zero risk of tropical rain and wind impacts across most of the U.S. through at least June 10, with a low risk for the Florida Keys from June 10-13.
Regardless of tropical development, heavy rain is expected across Florida, parts of the Bahamas, Cuba, and Jamaica in early June as a stalled front brings repeated downpours, posing a flooding risk.
READ: NOAA And CSU Forecast Above-Normal 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Urge Preparedness
Of particular concern are “water temperatures in the Bahamas, off the west coast of Florida and across parts of the Gulf are 8 degrees or more higher than the historical average right now,” Porter warned. “This marine heat wave is concerning, since it could provide extra fuel for any tropical storms, if one were to develop or move into this area.”
The first three names on the 2025 Atlantic storm list are Andrea, Barry, and Chantal. The names Beryl, Helene, and Milton have been retired due to the catastrophic damage and loss of life they caused last year.
AccuWeather’s Lead Hurricane Expert, Alex DaSilva, is available for interviews to discuss these developing weather situations.
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