Tropical Storm Bertha continued moving west across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, carrying maximum sustained winds of 60 mph toward the central Gulf Coast as meteorologists warned of heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and hazardous seas later this week.
Forecast tracks show the storm making its initial landfall in southeastern Louisiana late Wednesday or Wednesday evening. After moving onshore, Bertha is expected to meander along the southern Louisiana coastline on Thursday, briefly re-emerge over the northern Gulf waters, and track toward the upper Texas coast by the end of the week.
Satellite imagery recorded Tuesday afternoon captured the storm centered over the northeastern Gulf, showing wispy cirrus clouds expanding aloft. Meteorologists noted the atmospheric pattern allows the system to vent efficiently, creating conditions for moderate strengthening before landfall.
The storm retains roughly 24 hours over open water, with a low probability of briefly attaining hurricane-force winds of 74 mph.
“The ‘hug-the-coast’ scenario should hold back wind intensity,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Despite the limits on wind strength, severe rainfall remains the primary hazard along the Interstate 10 corridor. Forecasters expect a widespread band of 1 to 4 inches of rain stretching from the Mississippi and Alabama coasts through southern Louisiana and into Texas, with localized areas receiving between 4 and 8 inches. Maximum rainfall totals could reach up to 15 inches in isolated spots.
Wind gusts ranging between 40 and 60 mph are anticipated along the coastal I-10 corridor as spiral bands move inland, with isolated peak gusts reaching 75 mph. Storm surge levels are projected between 1 and 3 feet across much of the coastline, though localized surge could reach up to 5 feet depending on final storm intensity.
Marine hazards are expanding across the Gulf. Surfers and swimmers face an elevated risk of dangerous rip currents from Florida to Texas, while building wave heights increase the potential for overwash on low-lying coastal roads. Squalls and localized tornadoes or waterspouts also remain a risk within outer rainbands.
If the storm’s path drifts further south into the Gulf before approaching Texas, rain totals along the Texas coast could increase.
Should the storm travel well to the southwest, which is unlikely at this point, “the Texas Hill Country may be especially vulnerable to downpours due to saturated ground and infrastructure damaged by the catastrophic flooding last week,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Breanna Grill said.
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