Tropical Storm Dolly formed over the open central Atlantic on Thursday morning, setting off on a fast track toward the Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami initiated advisories on the system at 11:00 a.m. AST after satellite and scatterometer data confirmed that a low-pressure area, previously designated Invest AL96, developed a well-defined center and organized thunderstorm activity.
According to the NHC discussion, northwesterly wind shear has displaced most of the storm’s deep convection to the southern side of the circulation, away from the center, while the strongest winds remain in the northeastern quadrant.
Dolly is moving quickly westward at roughly 24 mph (21 knots), steered by a strong ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic.
While meteorologists note that “some slight intensification is possible” over the next 24 hours, conditions ahead are expected to deteriorate quickly. Increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, dry air aloft, and the system’s rapid forward motion should choke off any significant development by Friday.
Forecasters expect the storm to lose its tropical characteristics entirely over the weekend. All model guidance indicates that Dolly will degenerate into a strong tropical wave before it actually reaches the Caribbean islands.
Despite the projected weakening, the system still poses a flood threat. According to the NHC, “heavy rainfall could begin to affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday and the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.” The heavy rain may produce flash flooding, particularly across higher terrain, alongside gusty winds.
The center also clarified that the timing of the name Dolly is “purely coincidental,” originating from one of six rotating lists maintained by the World Meteorological Organization. The name replaced Diana after the 1990 season and first saw use in 1996.
Dolly is forecast to weaken to a post-tropical remnant low near the Leeward Islands by Sunday before dissipating early next week.
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