AccuWeather experts are warning of historic and catastrophic impacts as Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane, potentially reaching Category 5 status, over the Caribbean Sea this weekend.
The forecast puts Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba in the direct path of the storm, which is expected to bring life-threatening, destructive winds and catastrophic flooding into early next week.
Melissa is expected to strengthen significantly as it moves slowly over exceptionally warm Caribbean waters, with sea-surface temperatures in the upper 80s this weekend.
AccuWeather forecasts that Melissa could reach Category 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with sustained winds of 157 mph or greater.
Catastrophic Flooding and Life-Threatening Mudslides
Torrential rainfall is a major concern, with widespread, life-threatening flooding and dangerous mudslides anticipated, especially across Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba. Rainfall amounts of 24-36 inches are likely across western Haiti to eastern Jamaica. The mountainous terrain across these islands will amplify runoff, significantly increasing the risk of flash flooding, landslides, and road washouts, which could isolate communities for an extended period.
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Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist, highlighted the extreme vulnerability of Kingston, Jamaica.
“Much of Kingston’s critical infrastructure is located in low-lying areas that are vulnerable to storm surge,” Porter stated. “A key power plant, airport, shipping port, fuel terminal, and water treatment plant all sit near the southern coast. A storm surge of 6 to 10 feet could seriously damage or destroy this infrastructure, worsening immediate impacts and complicating recovery efforts.”
Porter added that airports will be crucial for delivering emergency supplies during disaster relief operations.
U.S. Landfall Risk Remains Low
While the main threat is to the Caribbean, the risk to the U.S. is low. The chance of Melissa making landfall in the U.S. is currently 10 percent, with the most likely areas being very far south Florida in the first half of next week or Maine late next week.
The risk of the storm passing close enough to the U.S. coast to cause direct impacts, even without landfall, is 20 percent, with the highest risk in South Florida and the Northeast U.S. coast, particularly Maine.
If Melissa avoids a U.S. landfall, this would mean no hurricane landfalls so far this season. AccuWeather predicts only a 5% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall in the U.S. before the end of the season.
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