Federal forecasters issued tropical storm warnings Monday morning for parts of the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts as a developing weather system in the northern Gulf of Mexico heads toward shore.
The National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five at 10 a.m. CDT, placing the area from Port Bolivar, Texas, eastward to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line in Louisiana under a tropical storm warning.
Forecasters said the disturbance, previously tracked as AL97, was producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms roughly 150 miles south-southeast of coastal Louisiana. Data collected overnight and from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight showed the system’s center was still “elongated and ill defined,” with its circulation lacking clarity on its western flank.
Despite the messy organization, forecasters designated the disturbance a potential tropical cyclone to ensure coastal communities could begin preparations ahead of its arrival. The center set initial sustained winds at an estimated 35 mph (30 knots), noting the figure was “a possibly generous” estimate based on satellite and wind-measuring instruments.
The system is drifting west-northwest at around 5 mph across water temperatures above 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius), encountering relatively weak atmospheric wind shear. Forecasters said those conditions favor steady organization before the center reaches land on Tuesday.
“Since the center is predicted to move onshore between 24-36 h, additional strengthening could occur between those forecast points that cannot be reflected in the official forecast,” the agency said, warning that small systems can intensify faster than normal models anticipate.
The system is expected to cross the coast somewhere along the Texas-Louisiana border by Tuesday afternoon, bringing squalls, minor to moderate coastal flooding, and strong winds. The main threat remains heavy rainfall, which will spread across the upper Texas coast, east-central Texas, and far southwestern Louisiana through Wednesday as the storm pushes inland. The weather service warned that flash flooding is likely across the corridor, particularly in paved and low-lying urban areas.
Forecast models show the system weakening quickly once onshore, likely falling apart into a broad, post-tropical low-pressure system over eastern Texas by Wednesday morning before completely dissipating.
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