A massive diplomatic breakthrough to end the war between the United States and Iran appeared within reach after President Trump announced a finalized settlement, though Iranian officials quickly cautioned that a definitive agreement has not yet been signed. The sudden potential for peace sent global oil prices tumbling by more than 4% on Friday, even as active fighting continued on multiple fronts across the Middle East.
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, President Trump claimed a broad agreement on “all points” had been reached, predicting a formal signing ceremony next week, likely in Europe. “They want it every bit as much as everybody else wants it,” Trump said, adding that he had called off planned “very hard” military strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure because a “great settlement of the war” was imminent.
However, Tehran offered a more guarded assessment. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei stated Friday that while the text of the 14-point memorandum of understanding is “largely finalized,” the Iranian government “had not reached a final conclusion on the agreement.” Baqaei blamed the delay on “contradictory positions” and new demands from the United States.
Details of the draft agreement, reported by Axios and Iranian state media outlets like IRNA and Mehr News, lay out a phased plan to halt the conflict. The initial phase establishes a 60-day ceasefire extension and requires the vital Strait of Hormuz to return to pre-war shipping volumes within 30 days, accompanied by the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade.
In return, the U.S. would waive certain sanctions to allow Iran to sell oil and release $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, with half made available before deeper talks begin.
The agreement also outlines long-term nuclear restrictions, under which Iran would commit in principle to halting uranium enrichment for 15 to 20 years and dismantling its nuclear infrastructure in exchange for staggered financial relief. The exact future of the enrichment program would be negotiated during the 60-day window. Iranian state media noted, however, that the draft text does not include Tehran ceding actual physical control or management of the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated Friday that he spoke with Trump on Thursday night and that they are in “complete agreement” that “Iran will not have nuclear weapons.”
While Israel is not a formal party to the memorandum, Netanyahu’s office expressed appreciation for Trump’s insistence that any final deal must include the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, missile limits, and a halt to Iran’s support for regional proxy groups.
Despite the intense diplomatic activity, violence on the ground has not stopped. The Israeli military issued fresh evacuation orders Friday for several towns in southern Lebanon, including Sarafand and Tufahata, warning residents to move north.
“In light of the terrorist Hezbollah’s violation of the ceasefire agreement, the Defense Army is compelled to act against it forcefully,” the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement. Hezbollah retaliated by launching rocket and artillery volleys at Israeli soldiers in Shamaa, accusing Israel of violating the U.S.-brokered truce that originally went into effect in April. Lebanese authorities report that the fighting in Lebanon has killed at least 3,711 people.
The conflict’s ripple effects also hit international shipping and security this week. India lodged a strong protest with the U.S. after American forces disabled three commercial oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman for allegedly violating the blockade. The second strike, which hit a Palau-flagged vessel on Tuesday, killed three Indian mariners. India’s Ministry of External Affairs called the use of lethal force against civilian shipping “unacceptable.”
Meanwhile, cyber tensions spiked as the cyber-monitoring organization SITE Intelligence Group reported that an Iran-linked hacking group named Handala claims to have breached the FBI’s counterterrorism drones. The hackers threatened to disrupt the World Cup, which began on Thursday, prompting tight drone security around the tournament’s stadiums.
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