A new wave of polling data shows President Donald Trump’s job approval hitting its strongest net rating since early spring, even as Vice President JD Vance sees his early lead for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination soften.
Over the past week, Trump’s job performance climbed to 45% approval against 53% disapproval. This marks his best polling numbers since early April. The upward trend was fueled mostly by shifts among independent voters, whose net approval rose five points to -19, and Republicans, who bumped the president’s numbers up six points to a net +73.
This rise in presidential approval matches a broader trend of voters placing more trust in the Republican party across several key topics, effectively narrowing the gap on issues where Democrats previously held a clear advantage. The Democratic lead on the economy completely flipped, turning into a one-point edge for Republicans.
Furthermore, previous Democratic leads on energy shrunk to +2, foreign policy flattened to an even split, and national security shifted to a GOP advantage. While Democrats still hold their widest margins on health care (+10) and the combined issues of Medicare and Social Security (+11), both of those leads shrunk compared to the previous week. Overall, Democrats maintain a three-point edge on the generic congressional ballot.
Further down the ballot, the race for the 2028 standard-bearers is showing early signs of movement, particularly on the Republican side where Vice President JD Vance’s early lead is slipping. Vance still commands the top spot on a hypothetical Republican primary ballot at 37% among Republican voters in June, but that number represents a 10-point drop from the 47% support he held in May.
The support Vance has lost has not consolidated behind any single challenger. Instead, the missing percentage points have scattered across the rest of the field. Marco Rubio holds steady at 16%, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. sit tied at 8% each.
Vance’s decline in the primary tracking matches a drop in his personal popularity. His net favorability among registered voters has fallen to -9, down from the -2 he registered in January.
The dynamics shift slightly when the president’s son is introduced to the data. When Donald Trump Jr. is included as an option in the survey, Vance’s primary lead drops to 32% (down from 39% last month). Meanwhile, Trump Jr. has shown steady growth since the spring, rising from 17% in March to 22% in June, making him the only Republican candidate in the field gaining ground month over month.
On the Democratic side of the early 2028 equation, the primary field remains relatively stable. Vice President Kamala Harris leads the pack at 26%, followed closely by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 20%. While Newsom’s numbers have held roughly flat all year, Harris’s primary share has fluctuated from month to month. However, her overall favorability has rebounded, climbing back to a net +4 among the broader electorate.
READ: Trump Floats Texas Sen. Ted Cruz For Supreme Court To ‘Get Him The Hell Out Of The Senate’
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