While the media, both domestic and foreign, post multiple stories about the war in Iran and Lebanon, the conflict in Ukraine has taken a back seat. But if they were wise, they would keep a close eye on Russian officials who are talking with little camouflage about the use of nuclear weapons.
It has not been a good year for Russia’s so-called “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine. By all reports, Ukraine has taken back significant areas once occupied by Russia since the beginning of this year.
Over 600 square miles of territory has been recaptured by Ukrainian forces. The Ukraine military, knowing that they are out-manned and out-gunned, has pressed Russia on multiple fronts causing Russia’s ground forces to divert from their main goals. Ukraine has also asymmetrically hit Russian supply lines diminishing Russian troops from aggressively attacking.
More significantly, Ukraine has become the premier center for military drone technology. Ukrainian drones have struck deep into Russian territory hitting refineries, factories—and even downtown Moscow itself on a regular basis.
All of this begs the question: how much longer will Putin and the Russian government put up with this before they turn away from conventional warfare and use the nuclear option?
There was a time when such an idea would be unthinkable. But besides defeats on the battlefield and attacks on their home territory, Russian financial ministers have put Putin on notice that money for the war is running out—the till is empty. Because of this, the well of options is running dry. While Putin has recently rebuked Zelensky’s call for a face-to face meeting, there does not seem to be any clear path to a Russian victory; Russia will not capitulate to Ukraine, and Ukraine refuses to give up territory occupied by Russia. It is a war of wills besides guns and bullets.
The Russians certainly do not want to be humiliated by a military defeat; it would mean, not only the end of Putin’s reign, but also the prestige of the Russian military might. Consider also that Russia has lost approximately 1.3 million men, killed and wounded. While the Russian public at first supported the war, these figures are now in the forefront of the average Russian citizen.
It is therefore quite logical for the Kremlin to think that they need a quick victory. Just as the Japanese surrendered when two of their cities were hit with the atomic bomb, fearing the total destruction of their country, Russia my use the same tactic in Ukraine.
Recently, Russian military analyst Col. Yuri Knutov was quoted as saying that the time will come “…when the question of using tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield will arise.”
Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin went a little further: “We are ready to use all means, including nuclear ones, to ensure the security of the Union State.” He went on to say that large, high-yield weapons need not be used as “…we have 152mm shells with nuclear warheads in service.”
These are officials with some weight; they are not media mouthpieces looking to gain some propaganda leverage.
Putin himself has on a number of occasions intimated that the nuclear option is on the table. While boasting of the capabilities of the nuclear-capable Burevestnik missile, he claimed that “it is a unique product that nobody in the world has.”
Clearly, ideas that were once in the shadows are now in the light. The advancement of nuclear technology, especially the minimization of nuclear warheads, has made a distant possibility a reality.
According to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, a new nuclear arms race is upon us. They cite that the nine nuclear-armed states in our world spent $119 billion upgrading and improving their arsenals. Such an event cannot be easily brushed aside.
The world now sits on the precipice of a possible nuclear event. If Russia decides to “go nuclear,” how will the other nuclear-armed countries react? Will they put forth a torrent of verbal condemnation, or reply in kind with their own arsenals?
Indeed, events in the Middle East are troublesome to the world. However, if world leaders are wise, they would keep their eyes on Ukraine.
Joseph M Bianchi is an independent author and journalist based in Greenville, SC. His work has appeared in national and international publications.
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