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Voters Pull Back From Trump And 2028 Front-Runners As Midterm Deficit Holds

President Donald Trump’s job approval rating sits 13 points underwater, with 43% of voters approving of his performance and 55% disapproving, according to the latest tracking survey from Morning Consult. The numbers match record lows recorded earlier this summer.

An enthusiasm gap between party bases accompanies the overall rating. While 49% of Republican voters say they “strongly” approve of Trump’s job performance, 81% of Democrats say they “strongly” disapprove. Ahead of the November elections, Republicans face a 4-point deficit on the generic congressional ballot.

Trump’s marks across major issues slipped over the past month. His rating on health care dropped 13 points, bringing it within a single point of its term low.

Democrats in Congress hold trust leads over Republicans on major issues, including a 13-point advantage on health care and a 10-point lead on housing. Democrats also maintain smaller advantages on energy (D+4) and the economy (D+3).

President Donald J. Trump
President Donald J. Trump

Looking toward 2028, neither party’s presidential primary field is consolidating. Front-runners in both parties have lost ground since spring, while the percentage of voters choosing “don’t know” has increased.

Among Republicans, Vice President JD Vance’s support on a hypothetical ballot test without Donald Trump Jr. has dropped from 49% in March to 42%. On a ballot test that includes Trump Jr., Vance stands at 33%, down from 37% in March, despite making moderate improvements compared with last month. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has risen from 11% support to 16%.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Secretary of State Marco Rubio

The potential Democratic primary field remains flatter and crowded near the bottom. Former Vice President Kamala Harris has seen her support slide from 37% to 29% since March.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom dropped from 17% to 13%, his lowest mark of the year after reaching a peak of 20% in June. Undecided voters now make up 14% of the potential Democratic primary electorate—a higher percentage than Newsom’s support—while “don’t know” responses also grew on the Republican side.

Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom
Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom

The survey findings show that ideological alignment inside the parties is not the primary factor driving the shifts. On a 1-to-7 scale, Republican voters place their party and their ideal candidate at the exact same point, while Democratic voters place their party virtually on top of their own preference.

However, a gap appears when looking at the broader electorate: general voters place their ideal candidate just right of center and rank both parties outside that range, though voters view Democrats as further out of alignment than Republicans.

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