Vice President JD Vance has maintained a narrow lead over Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom in the latest hypothetical poll for the 2028 presidential race, according to a survey from Emerson College.
The poll shows Vance with 46% support, while Newsom trails closely with 45%, leaving 10% of participants undecided. While neither figure has formally announced a presidential bid, both are widely considered the likely frontrunners for their respective parties in the next election.
A Tightening Contest
The results are the latest in a series of head-to-head match-ups conducted by Emerson College, which indicate a tightening race. Vance’s current one-point lead is slightly smaller than his less than one-point advantage found in a late August poll, and down from a 3% lead he held in July.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that the “hypothetical 2028 matchup between Vance and Newsom also remain[s] unchanged, suggesting a polarized electorate where individual issues may not be enough to sway overall opinion.”
.Kimball added that it remains to be seen whether “threats to democracy” or the economy, which voters, particularly women and younger voters, see as “heading in the wrong direction,” will be the dominant factor in influencing voter attitudes.
National Profiles and Partisan Battles
Both political figures have been expanding their national profiles, often through high-profile partisan confrontations. Governor Newsom has become a leading voice against President Trump, even gaining national attention for imitating the president’s communication style on social media—a move that Vance dismissed as inauthentic during an August media appearance.
The two politicians are also involved in state-level battles over redistricting. Newsom has spearheaded an effort to gerrymander California via Proposition 50 on the November 4 ballot, seeking to flip five Republican congressional seats to Democratic control. Vice President Vance has similarly traveled to Indiana twice in three months to push for redistricting that would add more GOP seats there, though the effort’s success is reportedly uncertain.
Furthermore, the two exchanged heated words over social media in June after President Trump deployed the National Guard to Los Angeles to quell protests related to immigration raids and border patrol agents in the area.
Poll Details
The Emerson College poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters and was conducted on October 13 and 14. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3%.
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