The global economy is showing unexpected signs of life this week as consumer confidence began to climb for the first time since the onset of the Iran conflict. According to the latest Global Outlook report from Morning Consult, sentiment rose by 1.2 points week-over-week, hitting a global average of 91.2.
The data suggests that shoppers are prioritizing the recent U.S.-Iran ceasefire over the ongoing U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This slight rebound follows a brutal first quarter where sentiment plummeted in every major region, even sinking below the record lows seen during the “Liberation Day” tariff hikes of April 2025.
While the global outlook remains neutral, individual markets are reacting differently to the geopolitical tension. China saw a significant jump of 4.4 points this week, despite its reliance on oil passing through the Strait. Other notable gains were seen in the Netherlands, which surged 8.7 points, and Mexico, which rose 2.8 points.
READ: U.S. Summit: Trump Calls Israeli And Lebanese Leaders To D.C. After Brokering Ceasefire
However, not every country is shaking off the news.
Italy saw a 3.8-point drop, and Australia fell by 1.1 points, leading to “negative” outlook ratings for both nations. In the United States, sentiment remained nearly flat with a marginal 0.1 increase, though its overall outlook is still classified as positive.
Morning Consult noted that the conflict has effectively wiped out a full year of global sentiment gains in just a matter of weeks.
The firm warned that while China and India have remained resilient so far, a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could eventually force consumer spending downward in these critical markets.
The report, which includes data through April 14, 2026, highlights that average consumer confidence fell by roughly 10 points in almost every region except the Americas during the first quarter.
As it stands, Saudi Arabia holds the highest sentiment score at 152.6, while France sits at the lower end of the spectrum with a score of 59.
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